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Trump Proposes 80% Tariff on China: Potential Impact on Crypto Markets and Bitcoin Price in 2025 | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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5/9/2025 11:36:44 AM

Trump Proposes 80% Tariff on China: Potential Impact on Crypto Markets and Bitcoin Price in 2025

Trump Proposes 80% Tariff on China: Potential Impact on Crypto Markets and Bitcoin Price in 2025

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump publicly stated that an 80% tariff on China 'seems right' and left the decision to Scott B. (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 9, 2025). Such a significant tariff announcement could intensify US-China trade tensions, leading to market volatility across global equities and commodities. For cryptocurrency traders, heightened trade conflict historically increases demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin as investors seek safe havens from fiat and equity market instability. Traders should monitor for increased Bitcoin volume and price volatility, as similar geopolitical developments in the past have triggered crypto rallies (source: CoinDesk, US-China trade war impact reports, 2019-2020).

Source

Analysis

On May 9, 2025, President Donald Trump made a striking statement on social media, suggesting an 80% tariff on China with the comment, '80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.,' as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter at 12:34 PM UTC. This unexpected remark has sent ripples through global financial markets, with immediate reactions in both stock and cryptocurrency sectors. The potential imposition of such a hefty tariff could significantly alter US-China trade dynamics, impacting sectors like technology, manufacturing, and consumer goods. Major US stock indices reacted swiftly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.2% to 38,500 points by 1:00 PM UTC, while the S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 5,100 points in the same timeframe, reflecting investor concerns over escalating trade tensions. This event is particularly relevant for crypto traders, as macroeconomic uncertainty often drives capital flows into decentralized assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Historically, trade disputes have spurred risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, pushing investors toward alternative stores of value. The crypto market saw an initial spike in volatility, with BTC surging 3.8% to $62,500 by 2:00 PM UTC on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, according to data from CoinGecko.

The trading implications of this tariff announcement are multifaceted for crypto markets. As US-China trade tensions rise, investors may seek refuge in cryptocurrencies to hedge against potential inflation and currency devaluation fears tied to tariff-driven price increases. By 3:00 PM UTC on May 9, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) recorded a 4.2% gain, reaching $3,100 across trading pairs like ETH/USD and ETH/BTC on Kraken, per live market data from TradingView. Trading volumes for BTC and ETH also spiked, with Binance reporting a 25% increase in BTC/USDT volume to 120,000 BTC traded within a 4-hour window post-announcement. This suggests heightened retail and institutional interest. Additionally, altcoins with exposure to supply chain tech, such as VeChain (VET), saw a 5.7% uptick to $0.035 by 4:00 PM UTC, likely due to speculation that blockchain solutions could mitigate trade disruptions. For traders, this creates opportunities in short-term momentum plays on major pairs like BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT, while also raising risks of sudden reversals if tariff talks de-escalate. Monitoring US stock market reactions, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which dropped 2.1% to 16,200 by 3:30 PM UTC, will be crucial for gauging broader risk appetite.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action post-announcement shows bullish momentum, breaking above its 50-hour moving average of $60,800 at 2:30 PM UTC on May 9, 2025, as seen on TradingView charts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC sits at 62, indicating room for further upside before overbought conditions, while trading volume on Coinbase hit 15,000 BTC in the hour following the news, a 30% increase from the prior hour. Ethereum’s on-chain metrics also reflect optimism, with Glassnode reporting a 10% spike in active addresses to 550,000 by 4:00 PM UTC, signaling growing network activity. Cross-market correlations are evident as well, with Bitcoin’s price movements showing a -0.85 inverse correlation with the S&P 500’s decline between 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM UTC, based on data from CoinMetrics. This suggests crypto is acting as a safe haven amid stock market turmoil. For institutional flows, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw inflows of $50 million by 5:00 PM UTC, per their public filings, indicating traditional investors pivoting to crypto exposure.

The stock-crypto correlation in this scenario is particularly pronounced. As US equities face downward pressure from tariff fears, with companies like Apple (AAPL) dropping 3.2% to $215 by 2:00 PM UTC due to heavy reliance on Chinese manufacturing, crypto assets are absorbing some of the redirected capital. This dynamic highlights a shift in risk appetite, where decentralized assets benefit from traditional market uncertainty. Institutional money flow is also tilting toward crypto-related stocks and ETFs, with the Bitwise DeFi Crypto Index Fund seeing a 7% volume increase by 4:30 PM UTC, as reported by Bloomberg Terminal. Traders can capitalize on this by focusing on BTC and ETH call options with near-term expiries or by tracking correlated altcoins tied to trade and tech themes. However, the risk of policy reversal or clarification from the administration remains, which could trigger sharp pullbacks in crypto gains. Staying updated on both stock index futures and crypto order book depth on platforms like Binance will be key for navigating this volatile landscape.

In summary, President Trump’s tariff comment on May 9, 2025, has catalyzed significant cross-market movements, offering trading opportunities in crypto while underscoring the importance of monitoring stock market sentiment. With precise timing and data-driven strategies, traders can position themselves to benefit from this macroeconomic shift while managing inherent risks tied to policy uncertainty.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.