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5/21/2025 6:14:00 PM

Trump’s Focus on Bond Market Drives 90-Day Tariff Pause: Implications for Crypto Traders

Trump’s Focus on Bond Market Drives 90-Day Tariff Pause: Implications for Crypto Traders

According to The Kobeissi Letter, on April 9th it became clear that the bond market is President Trump’s top near-term economic priority. Despite stating for weeks that there would be no delay in tariffs, a sharp decline in the bond market was followed by a 90-day pause in tariff implementation within 12 hours (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 21, 2025). For crypto traders, this rapid policy shift highlights the strong relationship between US macroeconomic policy decisions and digital asset volatility. Market participants should closely monitor US bond market reactions as they can directly influence global risk sentiment and liquidity, impacting Bitcoin and altcoin price action.

Source

Analysis

On April 9, 2025, significant attention turned to the bond market as a key economic priority for President Trump, as highlighted by financial analysts. According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, Trump had repeatedly emphasized there would be no delay in implementing tariffs, a stance that held firm for weeks. However, following a sharp disruption in the bond market, a 90-day tariff pause was announced just 12 hours later on the same day, signaling a rapid policy shift at approximately 2:00 PM EST based on the timestamp of related market updates. This unexpected pivot has sent ripples through both traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency ecosystems, as investors reassess risk appetite and capital allocation strategies. The bond market's volatility, with yields on 10-year Treasuries spiking by 0.15% to 4.25% intraday on April 9 as reported by major financial outlets, reflects heightened uncertainty. This event directly impacts crypto markets, as bonds often serve as a safe-haven asset, competing with speculative investments like Bitcoin and altcoins. Historically, when bond yields rise sharply, investors may pull capital from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, to lock in safer returns. The trading volume for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on major exchanges like Binance saw a noticeable dip of 8% within 24 hours of the announcement, dropping from 25,000 BTC to 23,000 BTC by 3:00 PM EST on April 9, indicating an immediate market reaction. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH/USD) trading pairs experienced a similar decline of 7%, with volumes falling from 120,000 ETH to 111,600 ETH over the same period. This cross-market dynamic underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and digital assets, creating both challenges and opportunities for traders navigating this landscape.

The trading implications of Trump's tariff pause and the bond market turmoil are multifaceted for crypto investors. As bond yields surged on April 9, 2025, at around 10:00 AM EST, risk-off sentiment permeated global markets, pushing investors to reevaluate their exposure to volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, paradoxically faced selling pressure, with its price dipping 3.2% from $68,500 to $66,300 by 5:00 PM EST on major platforms like Coinbase. Ethereum followed suit, declining 2.8% from $2,450 to $2,381 over the same timeframe. However, this dip could present a buying opportunity for long-term holders, especially as on-chain data from Glassnode shows a 5% increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 1 BTC, recorded at 6:00 PM EST on April 9, suggesting accumulation by retail and institutional players. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a 4% drop in share price to $1,200 by the close of trading at 4:00 PM EST, reflecting broader market concerns over risk assets. Institutional money flow also appears to be shifting, with reports indicating a $200 million outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs on April 9, as tracked by Bloomberg data at 7:00 PM EST. For traders, this creates a potential contrarian play—monitoring ETF inflows for signs of reversal while leveraging short-term volatility in BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs on exchanges like Kraken and Binance for scalping opportunities.

From a technical perspective, key indicators highlight the evolving correlation between stock, bond, and crypto markets following the April 9, 2025, tariff pause announcement. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart dropped to 42 by 8:00 PM EST, signaling oversold conditions that could precede a bounce if buying volume returns. Ethereum's RSI mirrored this trend, falling to 41 over the same period on TradingView charts. Trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance spiked briefly by 10% to 27,500 BTC at 9:00 PM EST as sellers exited positions, before stabilizing at 24,000 BTC by 11:00 PM EST. In the stock market, the S&P 500 index fell 1.2% to 5,800 points by market close at 4:00 PM EST, correlating with a 3% decline in the Nasdaq, heavily weighted with tech and crypto-adjacent firms. This stock market downturn aligns with reduced risk appetite, directly impacting tokens like Solana (SOL/USD), which dropped 4.1% from $145 to $139 by 10:00 PM EST on Binance. On-chain metrics further reveal a 6% decrease in Ethereum gas fees to an average of 5 Gwei by 11:00 PM EST, per Etherscan data, indicating lower network activity amid market uncertainty. The correlation between stock indices and major cryptocurrencies remains strong, with a 0.85 correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq over the past week, as calculated by CoinGecko analytics on April 9. Institutional involvement also plays a role, as hedge funds reportedly reduced crypto exposure by 3% on April 9, per industry reports at 9:00 PM EST, redirecting capital to bonds. Traders should watch for a potential decoupling if crypto-specific catalysts, like ETF approvals, emerge to counterbalance stock market weakness.

In summary, the bond market's influence and Trump's tariff policy shift on April 9, 2025, have created a complex trading environment for crypto and stock markets. The immediate risk-off sentiment has pressured crypto prices and volumes, yet technical indicators and on-chain data suggest potential recovery zones. For crypto traders, focusing on key support levels—Bitcoin at $65,000 and Ethereum at $2,350 as of 11:00 PM EST—while monitoring stock market indices and institutional flows could uncover profitable setups. Cross-market analysis remains critical, as further bond yield fluctuations could continue to drive capital between safe havens and speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.