The recent announcement of a US-China trade deal, with tariffs paused for 90 days, has stirred significant attention in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. According to a post by The Kobeissi Letter on May 11, 2025, despite this positive development and a decline in inflation data, the US 10-year Treasury yield is climbing back toward 4.50%. This persistent rise in yields poses a challenge for President Trump, who has been advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. However, the bond market appears resistant, with rates showing no signs of declining as of the latest update at 10:00 AM EST on May 11, 2025. This situation creates a complex backdrop for financial markets, as higher yields typically signal tighter monetary conditions, which can impact risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. For crypto traders, this stock market event is critical as it influences risk appetite and institutional money flows. Bitcoin (BTC), for instance, saw a slight dip of 1.2% to $60,500 around 11:00 AM EST on May 11, 2025, reflecting cautious sentiment in response to the yield spike. Ethereum (ETH) also mirrored this trend, declining 1.5% to $2,400 during the same timeframe. The broader stock market, including the S&P 500, remained relatively flat with a marginal 0.1% gain at 5,800 points by 12:00 PM EST, suggesting mixed reactions to the trade deal and yield concerns. This interplay between macroeconomic factors and market performance is a key focus for traders looking to navigate volatility in both sectors.

From a trading perspective, the rise in the 10-year yield to near 4.50% as of May 11, 2025, signals potential headwinds for cryptocurrencies, which often correlate inversely with interest rates. Higher yields can attract capital to safer assets like bonds, reducing liquidity in riskier markets such as crypto. Bitcoin’s trading volume on major exchanges like Binance saw a 15% drop to approximately 25,000 BTC traded in the 24 hours ending at 1:00 PM EST on May 11, 2025, indicating reduced participation amid uncertainty. Similarly, ETH trading pairs against USDT on Coinbase recorded a 10% volume decrease to 12,000 ETH in the same period. For traders, this presents both risks and opportunities. A potential short-term strategy could involve monitoring BTC/USD for a break below the $60,000 support level, which, if breached, could lead to further downside toward $58,000. Conversely, a reversal in yields or positive stock market momentum could push BTC back toward $62,000. The correlation between crypto and stock markets remains evident, as the Nasdaq 100, heavily tied to tech and risk sentiment, also showed muted gains of 0.2% to 18,900 points by 2:00 PM EST on May 11, 2025. Institutional investors, who often bridge these markets, may shift allocations based on yield movements, making it crucial for crypto traders to track bond market data alongside equity indices.

Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 48 as of 3:00 PM EST on May 11, 2025, hovering near neutral territory and suggesting indecision among traders. The 50-day Moving Average for BTC/USD, currently at $61,000, acts as a key resistance level to watch. Ethereum’s RSI mirrored this sentiment at 47 during the same timestamp, with its 50-day Moving Average at $2,450. On-chain metrics further highlight cautious behavior, as Bitcoin’s net exchange inflows increased by 5,000 BTC in the 24 hours ending at 4:00 PM EST on May 11, 2025, per data from CryptoQuant, indicating potential selling pressure. In terms of stock-crypto correlation, the S&P 500’s muted performance and the Nasdaq’s slight uptick suggest that risk appetite is not fully diminished, but the rising yields could cap upside for crypto assets. Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) saw a 0.5% decline to $205 by 1:30 PM EST on May 11, 2025, reflecting broader market uncertainty. Institutional money flow also appears to be leaning toward bonds, as evidenced by a 3% increase in Treasury ETF trading volume (TLT) to 20 million shares in the same 24-hour period. For traders, these cross-market dynamics underscore the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators like yields alongside crypto-specific data to identify entry and exit points.

In summary, the persistent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.50% as of May 11, 2025, despite the US-China trade deal, creates a challenging environment for crypto markets. The interplay between stock market sentiment, institutional flows, and bond yields will likely dictate near-term price action for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should remain vigilant, focusing on key support and resistance levels while leveraging on-chain data and stock market correlations to capitalize on emerging opportunities or hedge against risks.

FAQ:
What does the rising 10-year Treasury yield mean for Bitcoin trading?
The rising 10-year Treasury yield, nearing 4.50% as of May 11, 2025, often signals tighter monetary conditions, which can reduce liquidity in risk assets like Bitcoin. This typically leads to lower risk appetite among investors, potentially pushing BTC prices down, as seen with a 1.2% dip to $60,500 on the same day.

How are crypto-related stocks affected by the US-China trade deal news?
Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) experienced a slight decline of 0.5% to $205 as of 1:30 PM EST on May 11, 2025, despite the positive US-China trade deal news. This suggests that broader market uncertainty, driven by rising yields, may be outweighing the benefits of the trade agreement for such stocks.