US Job Figures Show Discrepancy Between Seasonally and Non-Seasonally Adjusted Data
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According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, exceeding expectations of 164,000. However, non-seasonally adjusted data reveals a loss of 81,000 jobs, indicating a discrepancy that traders should consider when assessing economic conditions and market impacts.
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On February 5, 2025, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data indicating that the US economy added 256,000 jobs in December 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly surpassing market expectations of 164,000 jobs (Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics). However, when viewed on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the US economy actually lost 81,000 jobs during the same period (Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics). This discrepancy between the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted figures has caused significant confusion and volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly in trading pairs involving the US Dollar (USD). At 09:00 EST on February 5, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) against the USD saw an immediate 2.5% price drop to $42,350, reflecting investor uncertainty over the economic data (Source: CoinMarketCap). Similarly, Ethereum (ETH) against the USD experienced a 3.1% decline to $2,850 at the same timestamp (Source: CoinMarketCap). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged by 15% within the first hour of the data release, reaching 2.3 billion USD, while ETH/USD volumes increased by 12%, totaling 1.1 billion USD (Source: CoinMarketCap). These rapid price movements and increased trading volumes underscore the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and their potential impact on monetary policy and inflation expectations.
The trading implications of these employment data discrepancies are profound. As of 10:00 EST on February 5, 2025, the market began to digest the information, leading to a slight recovery in BTC/USD, which rose by 1.2% to $42,850, and ETH/USD, which increased by 0.8% to $2,875 (Source: CoinMarketCap). The initial drop and subsequent partial recovery suggest a market grappling with the mixed signals from the employment data. Traders are particularly focused on the potential for the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates based on these figures, which could significantly impact cryptocurrency valuations. The trading volume for BTC/USD stabilized at 1.9 billion USD by 11:00 EST, while ETH/USD volumes settled at 950 million USD (Source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics further highlight the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin network's transaction volume increasing by 8% to 2.5 million transactions in the 24 hours following the data release, indicating heightened activity and interest in the asset (Source: Blockchain.com). Meanwhile, Ethereum's gas usage spiked by 10% to 150 gwei, suggesting increased network activity and potential speculative trading (Source: Etherscan). These metrics underscore the direct impact of macroeconomic data on cryptocurrency markets and the need for traders to closely monitor such indicators.
Technical indicators provide further insight into market sentiment following the employment data release. As of 12:00 EST on February 5, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 45, indicating a neutral market with potential for both upward and downward movements (Source: TradingView). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD showed a bearish signal with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend initiated by the employment data (Source: TradingView). For ETH/USD, the RSI was at 42, also indicating a neutral market, while the MACD showed a similar bearish crossover (Source: TradingView). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC/USD and ETH/USD showed increased volatility, with the price moving closer to the lower band, suggesting potential for further price drops (Source: TradingView). Trading volumes continued to be elevated, with BTC/USD volumes averaging 2.1 billion USD and ETH/USD volumes at 1 billion USD throughout the day (Source: CoinMarketCap). These technical indicators, combined with the on-chain metrics, provide traders with critical data points to navigate the market's reaction to the employment data and make informed trading decisions.
In the context of AI-related news, the employment data release on February 5, 2025, did not directly correlate with AI developments. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic indicators can impact AI-related tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced similar volatility to major cryptocurrencies. At 13:00 EST, AGIX/USD saw a 2.8% drop to $0.45, while FET/USD declined by 2.5% to $0.30 (Source: CoinMarketCap). The trading volumes for AGIX/USD and FET/USD increased by 10% and 8%, respectively, indicating heightened interest in AI tokens amidst the broader market uncertainty (Source: CoinMarketCap). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with AI tokens often following the market trends set by these leading assets. Traders can leverage this correlation to identify potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossovers, particularly during periods of market volatility driven by macroeconomic data releases.
The trading implications of these employment data discrepancies are profound. As of 10:00 EST on February 5, 2025, the market began to digest the information, leading to a slight recovery in BTC/USD, which rose by 1.2% to $42,850, and ETH/USD, which increased by 0.8% to $2,875 (Source: CoinMarketCap). The initial drop and subsequent partial recovery suggest a market grappling with the mixed signals from the employment data. Traders are particularly focused on the potential for the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates based on these figures, which could significantly impact cryptocurrency valuations. The trading volume for BTC/USD stabilized at 1.9 billion USD by 11:00 EST, while ETH/USD volumes settled at 950 million USD (Source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics further highlight the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin network's transaction volume increasing by 8% to 2.5 million transactions in the 24 hours following the data release, indicating heightened activity and interest in the asset (Source: Blockchain.com). Meanwhile, Ethereum's gas usage spiked by 10% to 150 gwei, suggesting increased network activity and potential speculative trading (Source: Etherscan). These metrics underscore the direct impact of macroeconomic data on cryptocurrency markets and the need for traders to closely monitor such indicators.
Technical indicators provide further insight into market sentiment following the employment data release. As of 12:00 EST on February 5, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 45, indicating a neutral market with potential for both upward and downward movements (Source: TradingView). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD showed a bearish signal with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend initiated by the employment data (Source: TradingView). For ETH/USD, the RSI was at 42, also indicating a neutral market, while the MACD showed a similar bearish crossover (Source: TradingView). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC/USD and ETH/USD showed increased volatility, with the price moving closer to the lower band, suggesting potential for further price drops (Source: TradingView). Trading volumes continued to be elevated, with BTC/USD volumes averaging 2.1 billion USD and ETH/USD volumes at 1 billion USD throughout the day (Source: CoinMarketCap). These technical indicators, combined with the on-chain metrics, provide traders with critical data points to navigate the market's reaction to the employment data and make informed trading decisions.
In the context of AI-related news, the employment data release on February 5, 2025, did not directly correlate with AI developments. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by economic indicators can impact AI-related tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced similar volatility to major cryptocurrencies. At 13:00 EST, AGIX/USD saw a 2.8% drop to $0.45, while FET/USD declined by 2.5% to $0.30 (Source: CoinMarketCap). The trading volumes for AGIX/USD and FET/USD increased by 10% and 8%, respectively, indicating heightened interest in AI tokens amidst the broader market uncertainty (Source: CoinMarketCap). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with AI tokens often following the market trends set by these leading assets. Traders can leverage this correlation to identify potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossovers, particularly during periods of market volatility driven by macroeconomic data releases.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.