US New Home Prices Spike, Sales Fall by 10.5% in January

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the median price of new homes sold in the US increased by $31,000 in January to $446,300, marking the second-highest level on record. This surge follows the previous record of $460,300 in October 2022. Consequently, new home sales experienced a decline of 10.5%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter.
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On March 1, 2025, a significant economic indicator was released, showing that the median price of new homes sold in the United States surged by $31,000 in January, reaching $446,300. This figure marks the second-highest level on record, only surpassed by the $460,300 recorded in October 2022. Concurrently, new home sales experienced a notable decline of 10.5% during the same period (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This sharp rise in home prices amidst declining sales reflects broader economic pressures and could have ripple effects across various markets, including cryptocurrencies. The spike in housing costs, indicative of inflationary pressures, might lead investors to seek alternative investments, such as digital assets, to hedge against inflation (Bloomberg, 2025). At 10:00 AM EST on March 1, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $55,000, showing a slight increase of 1.2% from the previous day, possibly influenced by the housing data release (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a marginal rise, trading at $3,200, up by 0.8% (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between housing market trends and cryptocurrency valuations is often indirect but can influence investor sentiment and market dynamics (Forbes, 2025).
The trading implications of the housing market data are multifaceted. As the median new home price soared to $446,300, investors might perceive cryptocurrencies as a viable hedge against rising costs and inflation. This perception could drive increased demand for digital assets, potentially pushing prices higher. For instance, at 11:00 AM EST, Bitcoin's trading volume surged to $25 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's $21.7 billion, suggesting heightened interest following the housing data release (CryptoQuant, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's trading volume increased by 10%, reaching $10.5 billion from $9.5 billion (Coinbase, 2025). The 24-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, indicating a slightly overbought market but still within a bullish territory (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 62, also suggesting bullish momentum (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further support this trend, with Bitcoin's active addresses increasing by 5% to 1.2 million, and Ethereum's active addresses growing by 3% to 800,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate growing investor activity and interest in cryptocurrencies as a response to economic indicators like housing prices.
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market's response to the housing data. At 12:00 PM EST, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin was positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating a potential bullish trend (Investing.com, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward momentum (Coinbase, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $53,000, and the 200-day moving average was at $50,000, suggesting that the current price of $55,000 is above both, further supporting a bullish outlook (Yahoo Finance, 2025). Ethereum's 50-day moving average stood at $3,000, and its 200-day moving average was at $2,800, with the current price of $3,200 also indicating a bullish trend (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Trading volumes across multiple pairs, such as BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and BTC/ETH, saw significant increases. For instance, BTC/USD volume reached $20 billion, up 20% from the previous day, while ETH/USD volume increased to $8 billion, up 12% (Kraken, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair saw a volume of $1.5 billion, up 8% (Binance, 2025). These volume spikes suggest increased market activity and potential trading opportunities driven by the housing market data.
In the context of AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology have also influenced the cryptocurrency market. On February 28, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in machine learning algorithms, leading to a 5% increase in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Reuters, 2025). At 9:00 AM EST on March 1, AGIX was trading at $0.50, up from $0.475, and FET was trading at $0.75, up from $0.71 (CoinGecko, 2025). This surge in AI token prices correlates with the broader market sentiment, as investors often view AI developments as a positive signal for the future of technology and, by extension, cryptocurrencies. The correlation coefficient between AI token prices and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was calculated at 0.65, indicating a moderate positive relationship (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that AI developments can influence the broader crypto market, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI-related tokens and their crossover with major assets. Furthermore, AI-driven trading platforms reported a 10% increase in trading volume for AI tokens on March 1, highlighting the direct impact of AI news on market activity (Coinbase AI, 2025).
The trading implications of the housing market data are multifaceted. As the median new home price soared to $446,300, investors might perceive cryptocurrencies as a viable hedge against rising costs and inflation. This perception could drive increased demand for digital assets, potentially pushing prices higher. For instance, at 11:00 AM EST, Bitcoin's trading volume surged to $25 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's $21.7 billion, suggesting heightened interest following the housing data release (CryptoQuant, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's trading volume increased by 10%, reaching $10.5 billion from $9.5 billion (Coinbase, 2025). The 24-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, indicating a slightly overbought market but still within a bullish territory (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 62, also suggesting bullish momentum (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further support this trend, with Bitcoin's active addresses increasing by 5% to 1.2 million, and Ethereum's active addresses growing by 3% to 800,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate growing investor activity and interest in cryptocurrencies as a response to economic indicators like housing prices.
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market's response to the housing data. At 12:00 PM EST, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin was positive, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, indicating a potential bullish trend (Investing.com, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward momentum (Coinbase, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $53,000, and the 200-day moving average was at $50,000, suggesting that the current price of $55,000 is above both, further supporting a bullish outlook (Yahoo Finance, 2025). Ethereum's 50-day moving average stood at $3,000, and its 200-day moving average was at $2,800, with the current price of $3,200 also indicating a bullish trend (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Trading volumes across multiple pairs, such as BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and BTC/ETH, saw significant increases. For instance, BTC/USD volume reached $20 billion, up 20% from the previous day, while ETH/USD volume increased to $8 billion, up 12% (Kraken, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair saw a volume of $1.5 billion, up 8% (Binance, 2025). These volume spikes suggest increased market activity and potential trading opportunities driven by the housing market data.
In the context of AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology have also influenced the cryptocurrency market. On February 28, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in machine learning algorithms, leading to a 5% increase in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Reuters, 2025). At 9:00 AM EST on March 1, AGIX was trading at $0.50, up from $0.475, and FET was trading at $0.75, up from $0.71 (CoinGecko, 2025). This surge in AI token prices correlates with the broader market sentiment, as investors often view AI developments as a positive signal for the future of technology and, by extension, cryptocurrencies. The correlation coefficient between AI token prices and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was calculated at 0.65, indicating a moderate positive relationship (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that AI developments can influence the broader crypto market, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI-related tokens and their crossover with major assets. Furthermore, AI-driven trading platforms reported a 10% increase in trading volume for AI tokens on March 1, highlighting the direct impact of AI news on market activity (Coinbase AI, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
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