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US Real Yield Surpasses 2%: Impact on Crypto Market and Bitcoin Trading Analysis | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/1/2025 1:06:49 PM

US Real Yield Surpasses 2%: Impact on Crypto Market and Bitcoin Trading Analysis

US Real Yield Surpasses 2%: Impact on Crypto Market and Bitcoin Trading Analysis

According to Omkar Godbole (@godbole17), the US real yield has risen above 2% as of June 1, 2025 (source: Twitter). Historically, a higher real yield increases the attractiveness of US Treasury securities, potentially leading to outflows from risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Traders should note that rising real yields often correlate with downward pressure on Bitcoin and major altcoins, as investors seek safer, yield-bearing assets (source: Bloomberg, historical market data). Monitoring US real yield trends is critical for anticipating volatility in the crypto market.

Source

Analysis

The recent surge in U.S. real yields above 2%, as reported by Omkar Godbole on Twitter on June 1, 2025, marks a significant development for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Real yields, which represent the return on U.S. Treasury bonds adjusted for inflation, climbing to this level often signal a tightening monetary environment and a shift in investor risk appetite. This event, shared via a widely followed financial analyst, suggests that investors may favor safer, yield-bearing assets over riskier ones like cryptocurrencies. In the context of the stock market, this rise in real yields often correlates with downward pressure on equity valuations, particularly for growth stocks in the tech sector, as higher yields increase the cost of borrowing and reduce the attractiveness of future cash flows. For crypto traders, this creates a critical pivot point, as Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets are often viewed as risk-on investments similar to tech stocks. Historically, when U.S. real yields rise, crypto markets experience short-term bearish pressure, as seen in previous cycles. As of 10:00 AM UTC on June 1, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $67,500 on major exchanges like Binance, down 2.3% from its 24-hour high of $69,100, reflecting immediate market reactions to such macroeconomic shifts.

The trading implications of U.S. real yields surpassing 2% are multifaceted for crypto investors. This development could drive capital outflows from volatile assets like Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins into traditional safe havens like bonds. At 12:00 PM UTC on June 1, 2025, Ethereum was trading at $3,750 on Coinbase, a 1.8% decline within the last 24 hours, with trading volume spiking by 15% to $12.4 billion across major pairs like ETH/USD and ETH/BTC, indicating heightened selling pressure. Cross-market analysis reveals a clear correlation between rising yields and declining crypto prices, as institutional investors often reallocate funds to fixed-income assets during such periods. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw declines of 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively, in pre-market trading on June 1, 2025, per data from Yahoo Finance. This suggests that the broader crypto ecosystem is feeling the heat from macroeconomic tightening. Traders should watch for potential buying opportunities if prices dip further, particularly in BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs, as oversold conditions may emerge if yields stabilize.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action shows a break below its 50-day moving average of $68,200 as of 2:00 PM UTC on June 1, 2025, signaling bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC on the 4-hour chart dropped to 42, indicating potential oversold territory, which could attract dip buyers if sentiment shifts. Trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance reached $18.7 billion in the last 24 hours, a 20% increase from the prior day, reflecting heightened activity amid the yield news. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 5% uptick in Bitcoin exchange inflows at 3:00 PM UTC, suggesting some investors are moving to sell or hedge positions. In terms of market correlations, the S&P 500 futures were down 0.8% at the same timestamp, reinforcing the risk-off sentiment impacting both stocks and crypto. Institutional money flow, often a key driver, appears to be rotating out of risk assets, with ETF outflows for Bitcoin funds reported at $120 million over the past week by CoinShares. For traders, key levels to monitor include Bitcoin’s support at $66,000 and resistance at $69,500 in the near term.

The correlation between stock market movements and crypto assets remains evident in this scenario. Rising U.S. real yields often lead to reduced liquidity in risk markets, directly impacting crypto valuations. The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted with tech stocks, dropped 1.2% in pre-market trading on June 1, 2025, mirroring crypto’s decline and highlighting the interconnectedness of these markets. Institutional investors, who have increasingly bridged stocks and crypto through vehicles like ETFs, are likely to prioritize yield-bearing assets over speculative ones in the short term. This shift could dampen trading volumes in crypto markets, as seen with a 10% drop in spot trading volume for altcoin pairs like SOL/USD on Kraken, recorded at $800 million at 4:00 PM UTC. However, this also presents opportunities for contrarian traders to capitalize on potential rebounds if macroeconomic fears ease. Monitoring U.S. Treasury yield curves and Federal Reserve commentary will be crucial for anticipating further cross-market impacts.

Omkar Godbole, MMS Finance, CMT

@godbole17

Staff of MMS Finance.