In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, a stark warning from the CEO of Sigma Capital has captured the attention of Bitcoin enthusiasts and traders alike. Despite maintaining a bullish long-term outlook with a projected $1 million price target for BTC, the executive cautions that the leading cryptocurrency could plummet by as much as 70% during the next market downturn. This opinion, shared on November 1, 2025, underscores the inherent risks in crypto markets, reminding investors that even amid optimistic forecasts, short-term corrections can be severe. For traders, this highlights the importance of risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders and diversifying portfolios, especially as BTC hovers around key support levels in current trading sessions.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Potential 70% Drop: Historical Context and Trading Implications

To put this warning into perspective, let's examine Bitcoin's historical price movements. During the 2018 bear market, BTC experienced a drawdown of over 80% from its peak, dropping from around $20,000 in December 2017 to below $3,200 by December 2018. Similarly, in the 2022 downturn, influenced by macroeconomic factors like rising interest rates, Bitcoin fell approximately 75% from its all-time high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021 to about $15,500 in November 2022. If a 70% drop were to occur from current levels—assuming BTC is trading near $70,000 as of recent data points—this could push prices down to around $21,000, testing critical support zones identified by on-chain analysts. Traders should monitor trading volumes, which spiked to over $50 billion in 24-hour periods during past corrections, as indicators of capitulation. From a technical analysis standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) often dips below 30 during such events, signaling oversold conditions that could present buying opportunities for long-term holders aiming for that $1M target.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC Traders

Focusing on actionable trading insights, current resistance for BTC sits near $75,000, a level repeatedly tested in late 2024 rallies, while major support is found at $60,000, bolstered by whale accumulation data from blockchain metrics. A breach below this could accelerate the warned 70% decline, potentially invalidating bullish patterns like the ascending triangle observed on weekly charts. On-chain metrics, such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, currently around 2.5 as of October 2025 reports, suggest overvaluation that aligns with the CEO's cautionary stance. For spot traders, consider pairs like BTC/USD on major exchanges, where 24-hour trading volumes exceed $30 billion, offering liquidity for entries. Derivatives traders might look at options strategies, hedging with puts if sentiment turns bearish, while keeping an eye on funding rates that turned negative during the 2022 crash, indicating short-selling pressure.

Despite the grim short-term outlook, the long-term $1M target draws from factors like institutional adoption and halvings. The 2024 halving reduced block rewards, historically catalyzing bull runs, with projections based on stock-to-flow models estimating scarcity-driven growth. However, traders must navigate upcoming economic events, such as potential Federal Reserve rate decisions, which could trigger the next downturn. Sentiment indicators, like the Fear and Greed Index dipping to 'extreme fear' levels below 20 during past drops, provide psychological cues for contrarian plays. In essence, this opinion serves as a reminder to balance optimism with prudence—scaling into positions during dips could yield substantial returns if the $1M vision materializes, but only for those prepared for volatility.

Broader Market Sentiment and Cross-Asset Correlations

Expanding the analysis, Bitcoin's movements often correlate with traditional markets, particularly during downturns. For instance, in March 2020, amid the COVID-19 crash, BTC dropped 50% in a single day, mirroring stock market plunges. Traders eyeing this potential 70% fall should watch correlations with the S&P 500, which showed a 0.7 coefficient in 2022 data. Institutional flows, with over $10 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows reported through mid-2025, could provide a buffer, yet rapid outflows during risk-off periods might exacerbate declines. For diversified portfolios, consider altcoins like ETH, which historically underperform BTC in bear phases but rebound stronger in recoveries, offering trading pairs like ETH/BTC with volumes around $10 billion daily. Ultimately, this warning encourages a strategic approach: use dollar-cost averaging for long-term bets while employing technical tools like moving averages— the 200-day EMA has acted as dynamic support in past cycles—to identify reversal points.

In conclusion, while the Sigma Capital CEO's alert on a possible 70% BTC drop injects caution into the market narrative, it doesn't overshadow the ambitious $1M long-term goal. Traders can leverage this insight by focusing on risk-reward ratios, targeting entries near support levels with tight stops. By integrating historical data, on-chain insights, and market correlations, informed decisions can turn potential downturns into opportunities. As always, stay updated with real-time metrics to adapt strategies dynamically in this fast-paced crypto landscape.