According to @QCompounding, the stock market’s roughly 10% annual long-term return comes at the cost of enduring crashes, corrections, and multi‑year periods that feel like failure, highlighting the volatility risk premium traders must withstand. Source: @QCompounding on X, Dec 25, 2025. For trading, this implies preparing for sizable drawdowns via disciplined position sizing, ample liquidity buffers, and time horizons that can absorb prolonged underperformance—principles that also guide risk-on exposure, including crypto. Source: @QCompounding on X, Dec 25, 2025.

According to @glassnode, the 1-week volatility risk premium has remained positive since the latest FOMC, indicating implied volatility is above realized volatility and supporting carry from short-volatility positioning. source: @glassnode on Dec 19, 2025, glassno.de/4oZhPhj This regime favors volatility sellers as IV continues to compress into year-end, with hedging flows helping keep realized moves contained. source: @glassnode on Dec 19, 2025, glassno.de/4oZhPhj

According to Greeks.live, the Bank of Japan's rate hike of 25 bps was anticipated, resulting in no significant market reaction. Bitcoin's implied volatilities (IVs) remain around 60%. The short-term volatility risk premium has decreased from +20% at the time of Trump's inauguration to -10% currently. This week saw a slight increase in actual market volatility, contrary to expectations, leading to a decline in short-term IV and a significant drop in the volatility risk premium. The market has lowered expectations for the remainder of the month, although some whales are accumulating short-term call options.