Stellar (XLM) Holds $0.36 Despite Record TVL Growth and Government Adoption
Darius Baruo Sep 05, 2025 07:53
XLM trades at $0.36 with oversold RSI signaling potential rally to $0.64. U.S. Department of Commerce adopts Stellar network as TVL hits $152M all-time high.
Quick Take
• XLM currently trading at $0.36 (+1.62% in 24h) • XLM RSI at 42.91 suggests oversold conditions with potential upside to $0.64 • U.S. Department of Commerce adopts Stellar network for economic data publication • Stellar's Total Value Locked reaches record $152.11 million, up from $84M in July
What's Driving Stellar Price Today?
The most significant catalyst for Stellar this week came from the U.S. Department of Commerce's decision to utilize the Stellar network for publishing economic data, announced on September 3rd. This marks a major milestone in government blockchain adoption and validates Stellar's positioning as a reliable infrastructure for institutional use cases.
However, despite this positive development, the XLM price has shown minimal immediate reaction, highlighting the current disconnect between fundamental progress and market sentiment. The adoption news follows earlier analyst predictions from August 30th suggesting Stellar's oversold conditions could drive prices toward $0.64 in September.
Adding to the fundamental strength, Stellar's ecosystem continues expanding with Total Value Locked surging from $84 million in July to over $150 million in August - an 80% increase that demonstrates growing DeFi activity on the network. Yet this record TVL growth has not translated into immediate price appreciation for XLM, indicating broader market headwinds may be constraining upward momentum.
XLM Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals with Bullish Undertones
Stellar technical analysis reveals a complex picture with several competing signals. The most notable indicator is Stellar's RSI at 42.91, positioned in neutral territory but approaching oversold levels that historically precede price rebounds for XLM.
The XLM/USDT pair shows bearish momentum through its MACD configuration, with the main line at -0.0146 below the signal line at -0.0119, creating a negative histogram of -0.0028. This suggests short-term selling pressure continues to weigh on Stellar's price action.
However, XLM's position relative to its moving averages tells a different story. Trading at $0.36, Stellar sits above its 200-day SMA of $0.31, indicating the long-term trend remains intact despite recent weakness. The price trades below shorter-term averages including the 20-day SMA at $0.38 and 50-day SMA at $0.41, confirming near-term consolidation.
Stellar's Bollinger Bands show XLM positioned at 0.2881 between the bands, closer to the lower band at $0.34 than the upper band at $0.43. This positioning often precedes mean reversion moves toward the middle band.
Stellar Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, Stellar support levels are clearly defined with immediate support at $0.34 coinciding with both the Bollinger Band lower boundary and strong support level. A break below this level could expose XLM to further downside toward the 52-week low of $0.22.
On the upside, XLM resistance begins at $0.43, which aligns with the immediate resistance level and Bollinger Band upper boundary. Breaking above this level would target the stronger resistance at $0.52, representing a 44% gain from current levels and approaching the 52-week high of $0.50.
The current pivot point at $0.36 serves as a critical decision level for Stellar traders. Holding above this level supports the bullish case outlined by analysts targeting $0.64, while failure to maintain support could trigger deeper correction.
Should You Buy XLM Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
For swing traders, the current setup presents an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity. With XLM RSI approaching oversold conditions and strong fundamental catalysts including government adoption, the probability of upside movement toward $0.43-$0.52 appears favorable. Stop-loss placement below $0.34 limits downside risk to approximately 6% while upside targets offer 20-44% potential gains.
Conservative investors might wait for a clear break above $0.43 resistance before establishing positions, sacrificing some upside for confirmation of trend reversal. This approach reduces risk but may miss the initial move if Stellar technical analysis proves correct about oversold conditions driving recovery.
Day traders should focus on the $0.34-$0.43 range, with the current $0.36 level serving as a key pivot. XLM's daily ATR of $0.02 provides adequate volatility for intraday strategies while the 24-hour volume of $14.7 million ensures sufficient liquidity on the XLM/USDT pair.
Risk management remains crucial given the bearish MACD momentum and position below key moving averages. Any position should incorporate stops below $0.34 to protect against broader market weakness overriding positive fundamentals.
Conclusion
Stellar presents a compelling case study in fundamental versus technical divergence. While government adoption and record TVL growth provide strong bullish catalysts, the XLM price remains constrained by technical headwinds including bearish MACD momentum. However, with XLM RSI approaching oversold levels and analysts targeting $0.64, the next 24-48 hours could prove pivotal for determining whether fundamentals or technicals drive Stellar's direction. Traders should monitor the $0.36 pivot level closely, with breaks above $0.43 confirming bullish momentum or below $0.34 signaling further consolidation ahead.
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