Stellar (XLM) Price Tests Support at $0.36 Despite Major Protocol Upgrade

Stellar (XLM) Price Tests Support at $0.36 Despite Major Protocol Upgrade - Blockchain.News

Quick Take

• XLM currently trading at $0.36 (-2.80% in 24h) • XLM RSI at 40.56 signals neutral momentum with bearish MACD divergence • Protocol 23 upgrade introduces smart contracts while TVL hits all-time high of $152M

What's Driving Stellar Price Today?

Despite a series of fundamentally positive developments, the XLM price has struggled to maintain upward momentum in recent trading sessions. The most significant catalyst emerged on September 3rd with Stellar's Protocol 23 upgrade, which introduced smart contracts and enhanced tokenization features designed to attract DeFi applications and real-world asset platforms.

This technical advancement follows impressive institutional adoption metrics, with Stellar experiencing a 39% surge in enterprise partnerships as of September 1st. The network processed $4 billion in real-world asset transactions during Q2 2025, supported by 9.69 million enterprise wallets. Additionally, Stellar's Total Value Locked reached a record $152.11 million on August 30th, representing an 80% increase from July levels, driven primarily by DeFi protocols including Blend, Stellar DEX, and Aquarius.

However, these positive fundamentals have yet to translate into sustained price appreciation, with XLM experiencing selling pressure that pushed it below key moving averages. The disconnect between network growth and price action suggests either delayed market recognition or profit-taking behavior from long-term holders.

XLM Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Emerge

The Stellar technical analysis reveals a complex picture for traders. XLM's RSI currently sits at 40.56, placing it in neutral territory but trending toward oversold conditions. This positioning often precedes potential bounces, particularly when combined with the current support test.

The MACD indicator presents a more concerning signal, with the main line at -0.0149 and the signal line at -0.0125, creating a bearish histogram of -0.0024. This configuration suggests weakening momentum in the near term, despite the overall strong bullish trend classification.

Stellar's position relative to moving averages shows mixed signals. While XLM trades above the crucial 200-day SMA at $0.31, indicating long-term bullish structure, it currently sits below both the 20-day SMA ($0.38) and 50-day SMA ($0.41). The 7-day SMA at $0.36 aligns closely with current price levels, serving as immediate support.

The Bollinger Bands analysis reveals XLM trading near the lower band at $0.34, with a %B position of 0.2424, suggesting the asset may be approaching oversold conditions within its recent trading range.

Stellar Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, several critical Stellar support levels demand attention. The immediate support zone centers around $0.34, which coincides with both the Bollinger Band lower boundary and historical price reactions. This level represents the first major test for XLM bulls.

Should the $0.34 support fail, XLM resistance could extend downward to the strong support level, also at $0.34, creating a concentrated defense zone. The proximity of these levels suggests limited downside cushion before more significant technical damage occurs.

On the upside, XLM faces immediate resistance at $0.43, corresponding to the Bollinger Band upper boundary. This level has contained recent rallies and represents the first hurdle for any recovery attempt. Beyond this, Stellar strong resistance emerges at $0.49, approaching the 52-week high of $0.50.

The current pivot point at $0.36 serves as a crucial battleground, with price action around this level likely determining short-term directional bias for the XLM/USDT pair.

Should You Buy XLM Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

The current setup presents distinct opportunities for different trading approaches. For swing traders, the XLM price near Bollinger Band support combined with approaching oversold RSI conditions suggests potential for a technical bounce. However, the bearish MACD momentum requires cautious position sizing and tight risk management.

Fundamental investors may find current levels attractive given the Protocol 23 upgrade's long-term implications and record TVL metrics. The 39% institutional adoption surge provides additional confidence in Stellar's growth trajectory, potentially supporting higher valuations once technical selling pressure subsides.

Risk-averse traders should wait for clearer signals, particularly a break above the $0.38 resistance level with accompanying volume confirmation. Stop-loss levels below $0.34 appear prudent for any new positions, given the concentration of support in this zone.

Active traders might consider range-bound strategies between $0.34-$0.43, capitalizing on the established Bollinger Band boundaries until a definitive breakout occurs in either direction.

Conclusion

XLM price action over the next 24-48 hours will likely center around the critical $0.34-$0.36 support zone. While fundamental developments strongly favor long-term bulls, short-term technical pressure requires immediate support defense to prevent deeper corrections. Traders should monitor volume patterns and RSI behavior for early signals of momentum shifts, with particular attention to how XLM responds to the current Bollinger Band support test.

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