Polkadot (DOT) Tests $4.18 as Supply Cap Sparks Bullish Momentum
Rebeca Moen Sep 17, 2025 13:45
DOT trades at $4.18 despite 0.52% daily decline, with community vote to cap supply at 2.1B tokens driving positive sentiment and technical indicators showing bullish divergence.
Quick Take
• DOT currently trading at $4.18 (-0.52% in 24h) • Polkadot's RSI at 53.77 signals neutral momentum with room for upside • Community approved supply cap at 2.1 billion tokens, marking shift to scarcity model
What's Driving Polkadot Price Today?
The most significant catalyst for Polkadot over the past week has been the community's approval of Referendum #1710 on September 15th, which caps the total DOT supply at 2.1 billion tokens. This landmark decision represents a fundamental shift from Polkadot's previous inflationary tokenomics to a Bitcoin-like scarcity model.
The DOT price has responded positively to this development, with the token showing resilience despite today's minor 0.52% decline. The supply cap addresses one of the long-standing concerns among investors about DOT's inflationary pressure, potentially creating a more favorable environment for price appreciation over the long term.
Market sentiment has notably improved following this vote, as evidenced by the sustained trading activity with $23.5 million in 24-hour volume on Binance spot markets. The decision demonstrates Polkadot's governance maturity and responsiveness to community concerns about tokenomics sustainability.
DOT Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Point to Consolidation
Polkadot technical analysis reveals a complex picture with both bullish and neutral indicators. The DOT RSI currently sits at 53.77, placing it in neutral territory with slight bullish bias. This positioning suggests Polkadot has room to move higher without entering overbought conditions.
The MACD indicator shows encouraging signs for DOT bulls, with the histogram reading 0.0205 indicating positive momentum building. Polkadot's MACD line at 0.0981 sits above the signal line at 0.0775, reinforcing the bullish momentum narrative.
Moving averages paint a mixed picture for the DOT price. While Polkadot trades above its 50-day SMA ($3.94) and 200-day SMA ($4.05), it remains below the shorter-term 7-day SMA at $4.28. The EMA 12 at $4.17 closely aligns with the current price, suggesting near-term equilibrium.
Polkadot's Bollinger Bands show the token trading at 66.55% of the band width, indicating moderate bullish positioning within the $3.56-$4.49 range. The daily ATR of $0.20 suggests moderate volatility, providing reasonable trading opportunities without excessive risk.
Polkadot Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Critical Polkadot support levels emerge at $3.61 for immediate support, with stronger backing at $3.43. These levels represent key areas where DOT buyers have historically stepped in, making them crucial for risk management in any trading strategy.
On the upside, DOT resistance appears at $4.63, representing both immediate and strong resistance according to technical analysis. A break above this level could signal the next leg higher for Polkadot, potentially targeting the upper Bollinger Band at $4.49 first.
The pivot point at $4.21 sits just above current DOT price levels, suggesting limited immediate upside before encountering technical resistance. Traders should watch how Polkadot reacts at these levels, as they often determine short-term directional bias.
The 52-week range of $3.15 to $7.50 provides broader context, with current DOT price action occurring in the lower half of this range, potentially offering favorable risk-reward for longer-term positioning.
Should You Buy DOT Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
Based on Binance spot market data, the current setup presents different opportunities for various trader profiles. Short-term traders might consider the neutral DOT RSI and positive MACD divergence as entry signals, with stops below $3.61 support and targets at $4.63 resistance.
Swing traders could benefit from the supply cap narrative combined with technical consolidation. The DOT/USDT pair shows signs of base-building, with the recent supply cap decision providing fundamental support for higher prices over weeks to months.
Long-term investors may find the current DOT price attractive given the transformational tokenomics change. The shift to a capped supply model aligns Polkadot with successful store-of-value assets, though patience will be required for this thesis to play out.
Risk management remains crucial across all timeframes. The $3.43 strong support level represents a logical stop-loss for most strategies, while the daily ATR of $0.20 helps size positions appropriately for Polkadot's volatility profile.
Conclusion
Polkadot stands at an inflection point with the recent supply cap decision providing fundamental tailwinds while technical indicators suggest consolidation before the next move. The DOT price at $4.18 offers reasonable risk-reward for patient traders, with the supply cap story likely to unfold over coming weeks. Watch for a break above $4.63 resistance to confirm bullish momentum, while a hold above $3.61 support maintains the constructive outlook for DOT in the near term.
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