BTC Tests Critical $107K Support as Lower Bollinger Band Pressure Intensifies Amid Mixed Market Signals

BTC Tests Critical $107K Support as Lower Bollinger Band Pressure Intensifies Amid Mixed Market Signals - Blockchain.News

Quick Take

• BTC trading at $107,291.23 (down 1.1% in 24h) • BlackRock's record $2.63B Bitcoin ETF inflows contrast with current selling pressure • Bitcoin testing lower Bollinger Band at $105,803 after rejection from $115K highs • Mixed correlation with traditional markets as S&P 500 gains while BTC declines

Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement

The most significant factor affecting BTC price this week has been the dramatic institutional capital rotation following BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust recording $2.63 billion in inflows. This represents the largest weekly inflow for Bitcoin ETFs on record, demonstrating unprecedented institutional appetite despite current price weakness.

However, yesterday's 1.29% decline below $112,000 occurred alongside a curious divergence from traditional markets, where the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.68%. This decoupling suggests Bitcoin-specific selling pressure may be overwhelming the positive institutional flow narrative.

The earlier week saw Bitcoin surge 4.85% above $115,000 following the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, but this momentum has since stalled as profit-taking emerges near technical resistance levels. The release of Bitcoin Core v30 with expanded OP_RETURN capabilities has had minimal immediate price impact, though it represents continued network development.

BTC Technical Analysis: Lower Band Test Developing

Price Action Context

BTC price currently sits 8.2% below its 20-day moving average of $116,577, signaling significant short-term bearish momentum. More critically, Bitcoin is trading just $1,488 above the lower Bollinger Band at $105,803, representing a potential support test that could define the next major move.

The current position shows BTC price has broken below all short-term moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $111,435 and 12-day EMA at $113,303 both acting as overhead resistance. Volume analysis from Binance spot data shows $4.57 billion in 24-hour turnover, indicating sustained institutional participation despite the price decline.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI at 36.05 has moved into neutral territory from oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a bounce but lacking strong bullish conviction. Bitcoin technical analysis shows the MACD histogram at -1,459 remains deeply negative, indicating bearish momentum continues to dominate despite recent institutional inflows.

The Stochastic oscillator reading of 21.86 (%K) suggests BTC price may be approaching a short-term oversold condition, though the indicator hasn't yet reached extreme levels that typically coincide with meaningful reversals.

Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $111,435 (7-day SMA and previous support turned resistance) • Support: $105,803 (Lower Bollinger Band - critical technical level)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A breakdown below the $105,803 lower Bollinger Band support could trigger accelerated selling toward the $102,000 strong support level, representing a potential 4.9% decline. Conversely, reclaiming the $111,435 level would suggest the current weakness is merely a retest of broken support, potentially targeting the $116,577 20-day moving average.

BTC Correlation Analysis

Bitcoin's current 1.14% decline while the S&P 500 gained 0.4% represents a notable divergence from the typical risk-on correlation seen during institutional accumulation phases. This suggests Bitcoin-specific factors are overriding broader market sentiment.

The cryptocurrency has shown stronger correlation with growth stocks recently, as evidenced by the initial rally following trade tension resolution. However, today's price action indicates profit-taking may be sector-specific rather than reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.

Gold's performance hasn't been specified in recent data, but Bitcoin's behavior suggests it's currently trading more as a risk asset than an alternative store of value.

Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

BlackRock's record inflows provide a fundamental floor for BTC price, as $2.63 billion represents significant buying pressure that may not yet be fully reflected in spot markets. A successful defense of the $105,803 lower Bollinger Band could trigger short-covering and renewed institutional buying, targeting the $111,435 resistance initially.

Technical momentum could shift quickly if Bitcoin technical analysis shows RSI moving above 40, combined with MACD histogram beginning to narrow its negative divergence.

Bearish Case

Failure to hold the lower Bollinger Band support at $105,803 would likely trigger stop-loss selling and potential forced liquidations, as this level represents a key technical breakdown. The 24-hour trading range low of $103,528 provides the next critical support, but a break below could accelerate toward $102,000.

Weekly options expiry positioning and the gap between current price and key moving averages suggest continued downside pressure remains possible despite institutional inflows.

Risk Management

Conservative traders should consider stop-losses below $105,500 to protect against lower Bollinger Band breakdown scenarios. Given the current Average True Range of $4,340, position sizing should account for potential 4% daily moves, particularly around the critical support test developing over the next 24-48 hours.

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