TON Tests Key Support at $2.14 as Inflation Fears Weigh on Risk Assets

TON Tests Key Support at $2.14 as Inflation Fears Weigh on Risk Assets - Blockchain.News

Quick Take

• TON trading at $2.14 (down 0.9% in 24h) • US CPI inflation report sparking risk-off sentiment across crypto markets • Testing lower Bollinger Band support near $1.97 level • Following Bitcoin's weakness amid traditional market correlation concerns

Market Events Driving Toncoin Price Movement

The primary catalyst affecting TON price this week has been the October 14 US Consumer Price Index report, which showed higher-than-expected inflation readings. This development has prompted speculation about potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments, creating headwinds for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The inflation data has reinforced concerns about tighter monetary conditions, leading to reduced appetite for digital assets across the board.

In the absence of significant Toncoin-specific news events over the past 48 hours, TON price has largely moved in tandem with broader crypto market sentiment. The technical analysis published on October 15 highlighting potential upside to $3.75 has provided some support, but macro headwinds have dominated near-term price action.

Trading volumes on Binance spot market reached $20.7 million over the past 24 hours, indicating moderate institutional interest despite the bearish price action. The correlation with traditional risk assets has become more pronounced as investors reassess their exposure to growth-oriented investments.

TON Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions Emerging

Price Action Context

TON price currently sits well below all major moving averages, with the token trading 14% below its 20-day simple moving average of $2.55. The 200-day moving average at $3.07 represents significant overhead resistance, highlighting the magnitude of the recent pullback from yearly highs.

The current price action shows TON following Bitcoin's weakness, though with slightly less volatility. Daily trading volumes remain within normal ranges, suggesting the selloff is driven more by macro concerns than fundamental deterioration in the Toncoin ecosystem.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI at 30.36 indicates TON is approaching oversold territory, potentially setting up for a technical bounce if selling pressure subsides. The MACD remains in bearish territory at -0.2044, but the narrowing histogram suggests momentum may be stabilizing.

Bollinger Bands analysis shows TON price at the 0.15 percentile position, meaning it's trading near the lower band at $1.97. This extreme positioning often precedes short-term reversals, though sustained moves below the lower band can signal extended weakness.

Critical Price Levels for Toncoin Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $2.36 (12-day EMA confluence) • Support: $2.02 (24-hour low and psychological level)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A break below $2.02 could trigger additional selling toward the lower Bollinger Band support at $1.97, with the next major support zone at the 52-week low of $2.05. Conversely, reclaiming the $2.36 level would suggest stabilization and potential recovery toward the $2.55 resistance.

TON Correlation Analysis

• Bitcoin: TON has maintained high correlation with Bitcoin during this selloff, following BTC's lead as macro concerns dominate crypto sentiment • Traditional markets: Increased correlation with equity markets as inflation concerns create unified risk-off sentiment across asset classes • Sector peers: Trading in line with other Layer 1 tokens, showing no significant divergence from broader altcoin performance

Trading Outlook: Toncoin Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

Oversold RSI conditions and proximity to lower Bollinger Band support create potential for technical bounce. A stabilization in inflation expectations or dovish Fed commentary could restore risk appetite, benefiting TON price. The $3.75 upside target identified in recent technical analysis remains valid if macro headwinds subside.

Bearish Case

Continued inflation concerns and potential Fed hawkishness could extend crypto market weakness. A break below $2.02 support would target the $1.97 lower band, with further downside possible if selling accelerates.

Risk Management

Conservative traders should consider stop-losses below $1.95 to limit downside exposure. Given the 14-day ATR of $0.23, position sizing should account for potential 10-12% daily volatility swings. Wait for RSI to exit oversold conditions and price to reclaim $2.36 before establishing new long positions.

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