SOL Tests Technical Support Near $184 as SEC ETF Delay Weighs on Sentiment
Timothy Morano Oct 22, 2025 05:36
Solana trades at $184.06 with muted 0.03% daily gains as traders digest the SEC's October 16 delay on Solana ETF applications, while technical indicators suggest consolidation phase.
Quick Take
• SOL trading at $184.06 (up 0.03% in 24h) • SEC ETF delay continues to weigh on institutional sentiment • Price testing support above 200-day moving average at $175.60 • Broader crypto correlation remains intact with Bitcoin's daily gains
Market Events Driving Solana Price Movement
The primary catalyst affecting SOL price this week remains the October 16 SEC decision to delay approval of Solana-based exchange-traded fund applications. The regulatory setback has maintained downward pressure on institutional sentiment, with the market interpreting the delay as another hurdle for mainstream Solana adoption.
While crypto analyst JamesEastonUK highlighted a potential breakout targeting $415 based on a long-term ascending triangle formation, this technical optimism has yet to translate into meaningful price momentum. The analyst's prediction, focusing on patterns since early 2023, provides a longer-term bullish framework but lacks immediate catalysts to drive SOL price action.
The current trading environment reflects a market digesting regulatory uncertainty while maintaining relative stability above key technical support levels. With limited fresh catalysts emerging in recent sessions, Solana technical analysis suggests traders are positioning for the next directional move.
SOL Technical Analysis: Consolidation Phase
Price Action Context
SOL price currently sits below all major short-term moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $185.95 providing immediate overhead resistance. The asset remains approximately 9% below the 20-day moving average of $203.06, indicating continued short-term weakness. However, the fact that SOL maintains its position above the critical 200-day moving average at $175.60 suggests the broader uptrend structure remains intact.
Trading volume on Binance spot market reached $850.6 million over 24 hours, indicating sustained institutional and retail interest despite the sideways price action.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI reading of 40.39 places Solana in neutral territory with room for movement in either direction. The MACD histogram at -1.5289 confirms bearish momentum remains in place, though the indicator appears to be forming a potential bottoming pattern.
Bollinger Bands positioning shows SOL price at 0.2530 of the band width, suggesting the asset is trading in the lower portion of its recent range. The daily ATR of $14.16 indicates moderate volatility conditions suitable for swing trading strategies.
Critical Price Levels for Solana Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $188.31 (pivot point level coinciding with recent trading range highs) • Support: $175.60 (200-day moving average providing crucial long-term support)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below the $175.60 support level would likely trigger additional selling toward the $168.79 strong support zone, representing the next major technical floor. Conversely, a move above $188.31 resistance could open the path toward $197.71, the recent 24-hour high, with further upside targeting the $203.06 level where the 20-day moving average resides.
SOL Correlation Analysis
• Bitcoin: Solana continues following Bitcoin's lead, though with slightly muted responses to BTC's daily gains. The correlation remains positive but SOL has shown relative underperformance during recent crypto market rallies.
• Traditional markets: Limited direct correlation with traditional assets currently, as crypto-specific factors like regulatory developments drive primary price action.
• Sector peers: SOL has maintained relative strength compared to other layer-1 protocols facing similar regulatory scrutiny, suggesting underlying fundamental support.
Trading Outlook: Solana Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
A sustained move above $188.31 combined with broader crypto market strength could drive SOL price toward the $200+ resistance cluster. Positive regulatory developments or renewed institutional interest in Solana ETF prospects would provide additional upside catalysts targeting the analyst's $415 projection over longer timeframes.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold the 200-day moving average support at $175.60 would signal a deeper correction toward $168.79. Additional regulatory headwinds or broader crypto market weakness could accelerate downside momentum, particularly if Bitcoin faces selling pressure.
Risk Management
Traders should consider stop-losses below $175 for long positions, while short-term resistance at $188.31 provides natural profit-taking levels. Given the current volatility environment, position sizing should account for potential 7-8% daily moves based on recent ATR readings.
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