Bitcoin ETF Outflows Drive BTC Price to Test Critical $100K Support Level
Joerg Hiller Nov 13, 2025 17:07
Bitcoin trades at $100,758.70 down 0.8% as $1.2B weekly ETF outflows pressure BTC price below key psychological support amid government shutdown resolution hopes.
Quick Take
• BTC trading at $100,758.70 (down 0.8% in 24h) • $1.2 billion Bitcoin ETF outflows creating selling pressure over past week • Critical $100,000 psychological support level being tested • Government shutdown resolution improving broader risk sentiment
Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement
The most significant factor pressuring BTC price this week has been the substantial outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with approximately $1.2 billion exiting these investment vehicles amid heightened market uncertainty. This institutional selling pressure has been the primary driver behind Bitcoin's recent 5% decline from higher levels earlier this week.
However, positive developments in Washington are providing some relief to risk assets including Bitcoin. The U.S. Senate's progress toward ending the record-long government shutdown has improved investor confidence across traditional and digital asset markets. This macroeconomic backdrop is helping Bitcoin technical analysis show signs of stabilization above the critical $100,000 level, despite the ongoing ETF-related selling pressure.
The interplay between institutional flows and macroeconomic factors continues to dominate Bitcoin correlation patterns, with BTC price movements increasingly tied to broader risk sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts. Yesterday's price stabilization above $103,000 demonstrated some resilience, though today's retreat toward $100,758 suggests the market remains sensitive to flow dynamics.
BTC Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support Zone
Price Action Context
Bitcoin technical analysis reveals a concerning position with BTC price currently trading below all major short and medium-term moving averages. The current price of $100,758.70 sits well below the 7-day SMA at $103,122.59 and the 20-day SMA at $106,848.62, indicating weakening momentum in the near term.
The 24-hour trading range of $100,500 to $104,085 shows increased volatility as measured by the daily ATR of $3,965.87. Volume on Binance spot market reached $2.53 billion, suggesting active institutional participation during this consolidation phase.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI reading of 37.58 places Bitcoin in neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions, potentially setting up for a bounce if support levels hold. The MACD histogram at -295.50 confirms bearish momentum remains intact, though the divergence between MACD and signal lines suggests the selling pressure may be moderating.
Most notably, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands position shows BTC price at just 0.1596 of the band range, indicating proximity to the lower band at $97,903 - a level that could provide technical support if the $100,000 psychological level fails to hold.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $104,000 (7-day moving average confluence) • Support: $98,944 (technical support cluster and strong support level)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A break below $98,944 could accelerate selling toward the Bollinger Band lower boundary near $97,903, with potential for a deeper correction toward $95,000. Conversely, reclaiming $104,000 would target the 20-day SMA at $106,848, potentially triggering short covering that could drive BTC price toward $110,000.
BTC Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin correlation with traditional risk assets remains elevated, with today's modest recovery coinciding with improved sentiment around government shutdown resolution. The cryptocurrency continues to trade more like a tech stock than digital gold, responding to macro developments rather than crypto-specific fundamentals.
Gold's recent strength hasn't translated to Bitcoin gains, highlighting the divergence between traditional safe havens and digital assets during periods of institutional selling pressure. S&P 500 futures stability is providing some floor for Bitcoin technical analysis, preventing a more severe breakdown.
Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
Successful defense of the $100,000 psychological support, combined with resolution of government shutdown concerns, could trigger a relief rally toward $106,000-$108,000. ETF outflow pace showing signs of deceleration would remove a key source of selling pressure.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold $98,944 support amid continued institutional selling could drive BTC price toward $95,000-$97,000, representing a test of the September consolidation lows. Extended government dysfunction or additional ETF outflows would exacerbate downside pressure.
Risk Management
Conservative traders should consider stops below $98,500 to limit downside exposure, while maintaining reduced position sizes given the elevated ATR reading. Any bounce toward $104,000 resistance offers an opportunity to reassess risk positioning before the next directional move.
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