ETH Rebounds to $3,131 Despite $177M BlackRock Ethereum ETF Outflow Creating Market Pressure
Rebeca Moen Nov 18, 2025 17:56
Ethereum recovers to $3,131.51 (+2.47%) after testing $2,946 lows, as BlackRock's massive ETF selling pressure creates technical uncertainty around key support levels.
Quick Take
• ETH trading at $3,131.51 (up 2.47% in 24h) • BlackRock's $173.3M Ethereum ETF sale drives institutional selling pressure • Price testing critical $3,100 support zone with potential for $3,000 breakdown • Bitcoin correlation remains strong amid broader crypto market weakness
Market Events Driving Ethereum Price Movement
The most significant catalyst pressuring ETH price this week has been the massive institutional outflow from Ethereum ETFs, particularly BlackRock's substantial liquidation of $173.3 million worth of Ethereum holdings on November 17th. This selling pressure contributed to a total ETF outflow of $177.9 million, creating bearish sentiment that initially drove the ETH price down to test the critical $3,100 support level.
The institutional selling comes at a technically vulnerable time for Ethereum, as previous technical analysis flagged the risk of a breakdown below $3,100 that could extend toward the $3,000 psychological level. The combination of heavy ETF outflows and technical weakness has created a challenging environment for ETH price recovery, despite today's modest 2.47% bounce.
Trading volumes remain elevated at $2.9 billion on Binance spot markets, indicating continued institutional interest despite the selling pressure. The market is now closely watching whether Ethereum can reclaim stability above $3,100 or if additional institutional selling will push the ETH price toward the projected $2,857 downside target.
ETH Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support Zone
Price Action Context
Ethereum technical analysis reveals a precarious position with ETH price currently at $3,131.51, sitting just above the critical $3,100 support level that has become a focal point for traders. The current price action shows ETH trading well below all major moving averages, with the 7-day SMA at $3,169 acting as immediate resistance and the 20-day SMA at $3,433 representing a more significant overhead barrier.
The 24-hour trading range of $2,946.56 to $3,168.91 demonstrates the intense volatility, with the lower bound representing a test of deeper support levels that technical analysts have been monitoring. Volume patterns suggest institutional participation remains active, though the direction has been predominantly bearish given the ETF outflow dynamics.
Key Technical Indicators
The RSI reading of 36.14 places Ethereum in neutral territory with a slight bearish bias, suggesting the selling pressure may be approaching oversold conditions without reaching extreme levels yet. The MACD configuration shows bearish momentum with the histogram at -22.18, indicating continued downward pressure despite today's modest recovery.
Bollinger Bands positioning reveals ETH price in the lower portion of the range at 0.2168, suggesting proximity to oversold conditions but not yet at extreme levels. The daily ATR of $232.87 reflects elevated volatility that traders should factor into position sizing decisions.
Critical Price Levels for Ethereum Traders
Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $3,169 (7-day moving average and 24h high) • Support: $2,946 (24h low and key technical floor)
Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios
A breakdown below the $2,946 support level could trigger accelerated selling toward the $2,857 target identified in recent Ethereum technical analysis, potentially reaching the lower Bollinger Band at $2,900. Conversely, a sustained break above $3,169 could signal short-term relief and target the 20-day moving average at $3,433, though this would require significant buying interest to overcome current institutional selling pressure.
ETH Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin's positive performance today has provided some support for ETH price action, though Ethereum continues to underperform relative to the broader crypto market due to the specific ETF selling pressure. The correlation remains strong but ETH is showing relative weakness given the institutional outflow dynamics affecting sentiment.
Traditional market factors appear secondary to the crypto-specific ETF developments, though any broader risk-off sentiment in equities could compound the selling pressure on Ethereum. Gold's movements have shown minimal direct correlation impact on ETH price action during this period.
Trading Outlook: Ethereum Near-Term Prospects
Bullish Case
Recovery above $3,169 resistance combined with stabilization of ETF flows could target the $3,433 level (20-day MA). A broader crypto market rally led by Bitcoin strength could help ETH price overcome the institutional selling headwinds, particularly if retail buying interest increases at these relatively attractive levels.
Bearish Case
Continued ETF outflows or additional institutional selling could drive ETH price below $2,946 support, triggering technical stops and potentially extending the decline toward $2,857. Broader macro headwinds or risk-off sentiment could amplify selling pressure across crypto markets.
Risk Management
Given the elevated ATR of $232.87, traders should consider wider stop-losses around the $2,900 level for long positions, while short-term resistance at $3,169 provides a logical profit-taking level for any relief rallies. Position sizing should account for continued institutional flow uncertainty and elevated volatility in the Ethereum market.
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