Bitwise lifts bitcoin forecast to $1.6 million by 2036

Bitwise Asset Management has updated its long-term bitcoin assumptions, projecting the cryptocurrency could reach $1.6 million by 2036 while remaining a volatile asset with significant drawdowns, according to the firm’s published forecast material dated Oct. 28, 2026.

Evidence and context

In the source material, Bitwise says its newly updated "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" covers bitcoin’s expected return, volatility and correlations over the next decade. The firm’s key forecasts include a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, average volatility of 27.8%, average correlation to U.S. stocks of 0.43, and institutional investor allocations of 1% to 5% of portfolios.

Bitwise also states it expects bitcoin to be the best-performing major institutional asset of the next decade. The company says the asset will remain volatile, though it expects drawdowns to diminish over time. It identifies the largest risks as quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal.

The published material says Bitwise Asset Management oversees $9 billion in client assets and offers more than 70 investment products. It also says the firm serves more than 5,500 private wealth teams, RIAs, family offices and institutional investors, along with 21 banks and broker-dealers.

Enrichment data available for Oct. 28, 2026 shows bitcoin trading at $80,735, up 0.78% on the day, with a market capitalization of $1,620 billion. The current price remains far below Bitwise’s stated 2036 target, but that comparison is a derived observation from the supplied figures rather than a realized outcome or prediction.

There is also a material attribution caveat: the verification notes supplied with the source material say a separately published 2027 long-term capital markets report was issued by J.P. Morgan Asset Management on Oct. 19, 2026, and that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan commented on bitcoin’s inclusion there. The notes further say Bitwise’s separately verified Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report was announced in August 2025, with different figures, and that the 2027 Bitwise-branded report title could not be independently verified from the supplied evidence. On that basis, the figures in this article are attributed to the provided Bitwise source text and should be treated as the source’s stated forecasts, not as independently confirmed publication history.