News
OpenAI details Jalapeño chip as Polymarket prices Anthropic at 99%
OpenAI says it’s building a custom inference chip called Jalapeño with Broadcom as the industry looks to hedge against reliance on Nvidia.
OpenAI’s “Jalapeño” Broadcom Chip Plan Fuels AI Hardware Arms Race as Polymarket Shifts to 99.05% Anthropic
OpenAI’s disclosure of plans for a custom inference chip dubbed “Jalapeño,” built with Broadcom, underscored the intensifying arms race to control AI hardware as more tech groups look to reduce reliance on Nvidia. On Polymarket, traders have pushed the “Which company has best AI model end of June?” contract further toward Anthropic, lifting its implied odds to 99.05%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Anthropic as the leader at 99.05% to have the best AI model by end of June 2026.
- Traders are clustering around a single winner even as major AI labs highlight new chip efforts aimed at performance gains and supply-chain hedging.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve on 2026-06-30, with the market currently active and still trading.
Nvidia has dominated the AI chip market for years, but companies across the sector are working to reduce single-supplier dependence by developing custom silicon. OpenAI has outlined plans for a custom inference chip called “Jalapeño,” which it is building with Broadcom as it seeks more control over performance and hardware tailored to its needs. The push mirrors similar efforts by other large technology groups, including Google and Apple, and reflects a broader shift toward using in-house chips as a hedge rather than a clean break from existing suppliers. A discussion of the trend was featured on an industry podcast episode examining what custom chip development could mean for the market. The same report also promoted an in-person founder event in San Francisco scheduled for April 30, with ticket savings of up to $190 ending June 26 at 11:59 p.m. PT.
Polymarket “Best AI Model by End of June” Hits $21.9M Volume: Anthropic 99.05% vs OpenAI 0.50% and Google 0.25%
On Polymarket, the multi-outcome contract “Which company has best AI model end of June?” is trading with heavy concentration in the Anthropic line, with Anthropic Yes at 99.05% versus No at 0.95%. OpenAI is priced at 0.50% Yes and 99.50% No, while Google sits at 0.25% Yes and 99.75% No, showing little appetite for alternatives. Long-shot outcomes including xAI, Amazon, Microsoft, Mistral, DeepSeek, Z.ai, Moonshot, ByteDance, and Alibaba are each marked at 0.05% Yes and 99.95% No. Total matched volume stands at $21,910,202, with the leading outcome up from 96.2% to 99.05%.
Watch whether liquidity migrates from the near-certain Anthropic line into second-place outcomes, and whether the market’s implied gap narrows as the 2026-06-30 resolution date approaches.
Beyond the AI Model Bet: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Now
Beyond the AI-model leaderboard, Polymarket flow is also clustering in a handful of high-turnover timelines that blend tech and geopolitics. In “GPT-5.6 released by...?”, traders price July 31 at 88.85% on $1,677,933 in volume, while “Which company has best AI model end of July?” has Anthropic at 85.5% with $2,044,076 matched. On the geopolitical side, “US forces enter Venezuela again by...?” implies a 97.3% chance for June 30 on $1,555,105, even as “Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...?” sits at just 0.2% for June 30 with $782,929 traded.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.4 |
| 7d | +2.4 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Which company has best AI model end of June?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$21,910,202
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 99.0% | 0.9% |
| OpenAI | 0.5% | 99.5% |
| 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| Z.ai | 0.1% | 100.0% |
+11 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...? — June 30 0%
- GPT-5.6 released by...? — July 31 89%
- Which company has best AI model end of July? — Anthropic 86%
- US forces enter Venezuela again by...? — June 30 97%