AI & Tech Prediction Markets
NJ lidar bill pressures Tesla as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 85.5%
In New Jersey, lawmakers are weighing a bill requiring fully autonomous vehicles to use cameras plus two extra sensors like lidar and radar, potentially blocking Tesla’s camera-only Robotaxi.
Meta debuts Instagram Muse Image as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 84.5%
On Tuesday, Meta rolled out Muse Image inside Instagram, letting prompts remix photos and even public-profile likenesses without notifications, with opt-outs only via privacy or new settings.
Kentucky data center lease keeps Anthropic at 84.5% on Polymarket AI race
A July 6, 2026 report says Anthropic signed a 20-year lease tied to a Kentucky AI data center slated to start up in late 2027 and ramp to 401MW in 2028.
US lifts Anthropic export curbs as Polymarket best-model odds slip to 83.5%
In a letter to Anthropic cofounder Tom Brown, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said licenses are no longer required to export Mythos 5 and Fable 5 after a Commerce Department agreement.
Asia AI launches test US export curbs as Polymarket keeps Anthropic at 85.5%
Two weeks after a U.S. order blocked global access to Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable models, China’s 360 unveiled the Tulongfeng tool and Sakana AI launched Fugu, pitching export-control resilience.
Apple Vision Pro exec to OpenAI, but Polymarket still has Anthropic at 85.5%
A report said Apple hardware VP Paul Meade, tied to Vision Pro and smart-glasses work, is expected to join OpenAI amid a leadership shakeup under new CEO John Ternus.
OpenAI details Jalapeño chip as Polymarket prices Anthropic at 99%
OpenAI says it’s building a custom inference chip called Jalapeño with Broadcom as the industry looks to hedge against reliance on Nvidia.
White House export standoff sidelines Anthropic as Polymarket odds hit 86.5%
After a June 12 export control order, Anthropic has kept its Mythos-class models offline for two weeks and sent executives to Washington as negotiations drag on.
Anthropic-Alibaba Claude dispute lifts Polymarket lead to 85.5%
In a June 10 letter to Senators Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren, Anthropic accused Alibaba-linked operators of running 28.8 million Claude exchanges via 25,000 fraudulent accounts from April 22 to
Core PCE jitters hit Bitcoin as Polymarket pegs Anthropic at 98.4%
Ahead of Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET core PCE release, Bitcoin’s one-week options skew showed a near 25-point premium for puts over calls as traders braced for downside.