Crypto Prediction Markets
June 26 Bitcoin options expiry looms as Polymarket puts 56K at 99.75%
More than $10 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on June 26, putting dealer hedging and key strike levels in focus as spot hovers near $65,000.
Musk BTC chatter returns as Polymarket puts 99.85% on Bitcoin above $58K
An analyst posted on X that Elon Musk owns Bitcoin and Dogecoin, citing SpaceX and Tesla’s BTC reserves while noting his personal stash remains unclear.
Bitcoin steadies amid Hormuz risk; Polymarket sees 7% chance Satoshi moves coins
Over the weekend, Bitcoin hovered near $64,200 after rebounding from a Friday dip below $63,000, as markets watched U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Switzerland and Iran’s renewed Strait of Hormuz
BOJ hike barely dents Bitcoin; Polymarket puts 99.95% odds above $56K
On June 16, the Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark rate to 1%, the highest since 1995, yet Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around $66,000 after a brief dip.
Deribit put buying flags $52K hedge as Polymarket prices 99.95% BTC above $54K
Over the past 24–48 hours, Deribit traders piled into near-dated Bitcoin puts across June 22–July 31 expiries, including July 31 $52,000 strikes, as macro headwinds stoked demand for downside
ETF outflows after Fed update, Polymarket puts BTC above $54K at 99.9%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $82.2 million in net outflows on June 17 after the Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and sounded less supportive on risk.
Equity rebound keeps Bitcoin near $63K as Polymarket puts 99.85% on $56K
U.S. equities rebounded after the Fed’s latest policy meeting, while bitcoin slid about 2% to just above $63,000 and crypto ETFs saw $111 million in net outflows.
Hougan sees calmer bull run as Polymarket puts BTC above $54K at 99.95%
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto’s next bull market may be slower and less volatile as Wall Street shifts toward tokenization, stablecoins, and AI.
Bitcoin dips ahead of Warsh-led FOMC as Polymarket sees 99.95% o1 FDV >$100M
Bitcoin fell below $65,000 ahead of the first FOMC decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with futures volume down 20% and volatility near multiweek lows.
M2-adjusted BTC scrutiny keeps Polymarket at 99.95% for above $56K
A new M2-adjusted analysis suggests Bitcoin and the S&P 500 look weaker than their nominal highs, with BTC-to-M2 flashing a warning pattern after the 2023–2025 climb.