Geopolitics
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff news
As a stopgap tariff window expires, a report says President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with new 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 countries. Polymarket traders care because the “U.S.
Polymarket odds put China-Taiwan invasion risk at 4% after drills report
Japan’s defense ministry said Chinese and Russian warships held joint live-fire drills inside Japan’s claimed EEZ in the Pacific, and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi disclosed the activity.
Polymarket odds for China–Taiwan clash before 2027 slip to 7.25%
In early July, Sri Lanka’s worst dengue outbreak in nearly a decade prompted armed forces support, with air force drones and troops helping inspections after monsoon rains.
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Polymarket odds: China–Taiwan clash before 2027 slips to 7.3% Yes
A “Future-ready wealth strategies” topic page compiling rolling “Latest News and Updates” was the newest attached item, offering no discrete cross-strait military development.
Polymarket: Taiwan invasion odds drop to 3.95% as Middle East risks flare
A report said the US struck bridges in Iran, and Tehran hit a power and desalination plant in Kuwait as maritime incidents flared near Hormuz and Yemen after a ceasefire collapsed.
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights Tokyo
Tokyo’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Japan is concerned about a US campaign targeting the ICC, underscoring its rule-of-law stance even as it relies on US security.
Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volume
On 15 Jul 2026, the only linked update was a Happy Valley Race 1 result, offering no Taiwan-related catalyst.
Chinese survey ship near Taiwan pulls Polymarket clash odds to 5.5%
From June 16–18, the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 22 ran an oceanographic survey east of Taiwan that U.S. experts said could aid military planning.
China patrol near Taiwan draws Taipei rebuke as Polymarket holds England 39.5%
On July 4, China said it launched a new coast guard patrol east of Taiwan, a move Taipei condemned as illegal while tracking two Chinese ships near Hualien.
Sha Tin race feed misfire as Polymarket Taiwan invasion Yes slips to 3.65%
A July 1, 2026 feed entry lists a Sha Tin Race 1 result for the “RACING GOES ON HANDICAP” with no snippet and no Taiwan-related details.