Inflation
Polymarket odds lift to 79.5% for Fed hold in July after CPI risk note
A research note ahead of the CPI release warned that shifting Fed policy expectations could drive near-term stock volatility.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Cooling inflation bets lift BTC as Polymarket prices 99.95% above $48K
In the week ended July 5, Bitcoin rose nearly 7% and hovered near $62,066 as U.S. inflation breakevens slid, with the two-year rate dipping below 2%.
Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%
Mexico’s central bank survey showed private economists now expect lower inflation, reinforcing a softer price outlook that can ripple into global rate assumptions.
Kocher flags easing inflation as Polymarket cuts 2026 Fed hike odds to 54.5%
At 08:42 on July 1, 2026, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said European inflation is stabilizing as Middle East tensions ease, but uncertainty remains high.
Euro slips on cooler inflation as Polymarket boosts Fed hold odds to 79.5%
After fresh euro zone inflation data signaled cooling prices, the euro extended its reversal and slipped below 1.1400.
Hormuz reopening cools oil shock as Polymarket no-cut 2026 Fed odds dip
Oil prices have slid since the Strait of Hormuz reopened, easing an energy-driven inflation threat as focus shifts to whether surging AI data-center and chip spending could add new price pressure.
May inflation hits 4.1% as Polymarket sees 79% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May.
Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge climbed to a new three-year high, keeping pressure on policymakers and muddying the near-term rate outlook.
Inflation warning revives hike talk as Polymarket keeps 2026 at 82% zero cuts
A new opinion piece says inflation risks extend beyond oil, pointing to two less obvious forces that could keep prices sticky and even make the Fed weigh a hike instead of cuts.