Iran, US clash on Hormuz status as Polymarket prices 58.5% No by July 31
Iran’s joint military command said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Washington sees no evidence of a shutdown and believes it remains open.
Post-truce Lebanon strikes lift Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 47.5%
Israeli strikes killed at least 16 people in Lebanon on Saturday, hours after a truce began Friday at 4 p.m., highlighting how fragile the calm remains.
Lebanon ceasefire tested as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 6.5%
A U.S. official said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire, but rescue crews reported at least 12 air strikes after it began at 16:00 local time.
Trump remarks fuel Israel-Iran tensions as Polymarket sees 4.5% Iran halt
In a new interview, President Donald Trump said Israel acts in line with his wishes as Israel launched overnight strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and a ceasefire was announced Friday.
Hormuz tanker traffic jumps as Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 44%
At least 20 oil tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the busiest day since June 2, as commercial shipping resumed under a U.S.-Iran arrangement.
Vance cancels trip, US-Iran talks slip; Polymarket has Switzerland at 68%
A planned round of direct US-Iran talks at Switzerland’s Burgenstock resort was postponed after Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip, with the White House citing unpredictable logistics.
Hormuz tanker traffic resumes as Polymarket Yes odds rise to 2.7%
After the U.S. lifted its blockade on Iran Thursday, shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz and Brent fell 1% to $79.03, lifting Japan and South Korea stocks to records.
Oil eases as Hormuz reopens, Polymarket puts July traffic normal at 47%
U.S.-Iran follow-up talks in Switzerland were called off, and oil prices swung even as tankers carrying over 12 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz overnight.
Hormuz shipping resumes as Polymarket sees 5.5% odds Iran halts enrichment
Friday, at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz as Brent rose to $80.38 after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, even while Iran signaled tighter transit controls.
Postponed US-Iran talks push Polymarket to 13.5% on ending enrichment by July
European stocks slipped after Tehran and Washington postponed talks, while JD Vance said any economic relief hinges on full compliance and Iran’s supreme leader called the interim terms conditional.