Iran adds Lebanon condition as Polymarket puts June 30 deal-text release at 98%
On Tuesday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said any U.S.-Iran war-ending deal must include an Israeli pullback from southern Lebanon, a demand Israel rejects ahead of Friday’s planned signing
Hormuz deal signing nears as Polymarket puts June 30 text release at 94%
Analysts at Kpler say Strait of Hormuz traffic could rebound to about 40 daily transits from around 100 before Feb.
Iran inflation surge fuels unrest talk as Polymarket prices 99% regime survival
After the U.S.-Israeli war, Iran’s government remains in place but economic conditions are deteriorating, with cooking oil up 430% year over year and the IMF forecasting a 6.1% contraction.
Ceasefire report lifts Switzerland to 63% on Polymarket for next US-Iran talks
On Monday, bitcoin and ether climbed about 2% after reports said a U.S.-Iran ceasefire is in place and a formal peace agreement could be signed this week.
Gulf war truce talk cools Iran collapse bet, Polymarket Yes slips to 9.5%
Trump said the United States and Iran had already signed a preliminary agreement to end the Gulf war, sending oil to a three-month low and lifting global stocks and bonds.
Austria–Jordan preview circulates as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalcy at 60.5%
A World Cup 2026 viewing guide set Austria vs Jordan for 17 Jun 2026 at 05:00 in the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, with projected lineups and no confirmed absences.
US-Iran peace deal signing shifts focus to next talks as Switzerland at 73%
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1%, the highest since 1995, as inflation pressures linger despite a US-Iran peace deal.
G7 floats Hormuz escort plan as Polymarket puts normal traffic odds at 20.5%
At the G7 summit in France, U.S. allies advanced plans for a Hormuz naval mission to clear mines and potentially escort ships, even as Trump said a tentative Iran deal means the strait will be open.
June 30 Deadline Odds Shift Against Iran Enrichment Pact
On June 30, tensions surged as a peace deal developments arrived ahead of the deadline for uranium enrichment commitments, prompting Polymarket traders to reassess probabilities.
Market sees high odds No invasion of Iran before 2027
On 2026-06-15, a CNBC-related segment on AI, diplomacy and Iran policy circulated, signaling volatility in regional security expectations.