Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets
Polymarket odds for US-Iran invasion by 2027 jump to 31.5% on $44.6M
On July 18, 2026, a World Cup 2026 video roundup previewed an Argentina–Spain final with comments from Messi and Rodri.
Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 10.5% as escalation headlines swirl
Iranian state TV read a statement attributed to the supreme leader warning the US of “unforgettable lessons,” as both sides accused each other of breaching a recent MoU and called it “over.”
Polymarket lifts Israel-Iran ceasefire odds to 97.6% through July 18
Kuwait reported injuries and damage to power, water, and an oil facility after an Iranian attack, adding fresh regional headline risk.
Polymarket: US-Iran invasion Yes jumps to 27.5% on $44M volume
On Sunday, Caitlin Clark erupted for 45 points and 10 assists as Indiana edged Seattle 110-107 in a WNBA roundup that also noted officiating debates and other storylines.
Polymarket holds Iran regime-fall Yes at 10.5% despite strike escalation
For a sixth straight night, a report says the U.S. widened airstrikes on Iran, hitting bridges, energy sites, and a key-port tower as Hormuz fighting intensified.
Polymarket keeps Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights
Fresh live updates report the US and Iran traded attacks for a seventh straight night, underscoring an unresolved conflict. Polymarket traders care because the ceasefire ladder still puts the Aug.
Polymarket: US-Iran invasion odds jump to 27.5% on $44M volume
A report cited explosions in Yazd and other parts of Iran during what it called a latest wave of U.S. strikes, renewing escalation concerns.
Polymarket Hormuz normal-traffic odds sink to 52.5% on escalation risks
An Iranian official reportedly threatened a “full-scale offensive” if US strikes continue, raising fears of wider escalation that could disrupt shipping.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 22.5% on Gulf strike escalation
Overnight reports said Iran fired missiles and drones across parts of the Gulf as the U.S.
Polymarket prices US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 at 53.5% as Knesset dissolves
Israel’s parliament dissolved, triggering an October 27 election framed as a referendum on Netanyahu and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.