Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Iran regime fall odds dip to 9.5% as Israel sets Oct. 27 vote
Israel’s parliament set national elections for October 27, with Benjamin Netanyahu confirming he’ll run as criticism over security failures and the Gaza war hangs over the campaign.
Polymarket odds dip to 67% on Iran Hormuz fees by Dec 31 after strike reports
Iranian state media reported nearly a dozen “enemy projectiles” hit Qeshm Island, with new explosions in Bandar Abbas, calling it a fifth wave of US strikes since a ceasefire three weeks ago.
Polymarket: Hormuz normalization by July 15 at 0.35% Yes on $9.8M
After a new exchange of fire, the U.S. and Iran each claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, even as an initial deal to reopen it and extend a shaky ceasefire emerged.
Polymarket odds jump as July 12 leads Iran Gulf action ladder at 84.5%
US Central Command said it launched a third round of strikes on Iran this week, hitting about 140 military sites after an IRGC attack disabled the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic normal by July 15 priced 0.35% Yes after strikes
Iran reportedly launched missile attacks on US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar, including Al Udeid, as Doha activated emergency alerts after fresh US strikes on Iran.
Polymarket odds for Iran Gulf action fall to 66.5% after Hormuz claim
Iran’s IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz was closed in response to US interference, as Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon continued with reported civilian casualties.
Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic normalization by Jul 15 at 0.35% Yes
A new report details rising Iran–US tensions and dueling claims about Strait of Hormuz shipping, even as mediator channels stay active and Iran’s hardliners talk retaliation.
Polymarket odds of US invading Iran rise to 16.5% after strike footage report
The U.S. military reportedly released footage described as showing new strikes on Iran, renewing escalation fears.