Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets
Polymarket keeps Iran regime-fall odds at 2.45% as ceasefire rift flares
At a NATO summit in Turkiye, a report says President Trump called the US–Iran ceasefire MOU “over,” after US strikes followed a promised pause tied to Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
Polymarket drops Iran regime-fall odds to 8.5% amid ceasefire strain
Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are testing a fragile Iran–US ceasefire extension amid renewed strikes and missile/drone exchanges.
Polymarket odds price 16.5% chance of U.S. invading Iran before 2027
Markets turned risk-off after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes tied to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz as Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02.
US strikes on Iran hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes drops to 58.5%
On July 8, 2026, the United States launched new strikes on Iran during the seven-day funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, citing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran strikes hit Hormuz; Polymarket sees 4.5% chance of July traffic normal
Tuesday, US Central Command said it began strikes on Iran after Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran promising a “crushing response.” Polymarket
Trump NATO rebuke hits Hormuz normalcy bet as Polymarket Yes slips to 58%
On July 7, 2026, Donald Trump faulted NATO allies for not backing the U.S. during its conflict with Iran, questioning the alliance’s burden-sharing.
Trump scraps Iran MoU, oil jumps as Polymarket prices Hormuz normalcy at 0.85%
U.S. President Donald Trump said the Iran memorandum to end the conflict was “over” and warned of additional strikes Wednesday night, sending oil up and stocks lower.
Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5%
A report said Donald Trump claimed the U.S. attacked Iran’s Kharg Island the previous night and floated reinstating a blockade of Iranian ports.
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31
On July 8, 2026, four oil and gas tankers reportedly reversed course after vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fresh security risk for energy shipping.
US strikes Iran, Polymarket invasion odds rise to 14.5%
Early Wednesday, the U.S. launched dozens of strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, rattling markets and raising escalation fears.