Hormuz ship strike stalls UN evacuation as Polymarket Yes rises to 54.5%
After a cargo ship was struck near Oman, the UN’s maritime agency paused plans to evacuate over 11,000 sailors from the Strait of Hormuz pending safety guarantees.
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%
Brent crude jumped up to 4% after the UN maritime agency halted an evacuation plan for ships near the Strait of Hormuz following a cargo-vessel attack.
Trump cites Iran funds for farm buys as Polymarket holds deal-by-Aug 31 at 25.5%
Donald Trump was reported saying the US would soon buy farm goods with unfrozen Iranian funds.
Hormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%
A maritime agency said a vessel was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring ongoing security risks in the vital shipping corridor.
US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%
Oil prices slid to pre-war levels on June 25 as the United States said Strait of Hormuz shipping was nearing normal, even as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels to follow Tehran-designated
Tanker exits Hormuz on new Oman route as Polymarket 'Yes' falls to 5.15%
On Thursday, a Liberian oil tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz using a UN-promoted coastal route near Oman as mine threats linger and Iran-US tensions simmer over an interim accord.
Hormuz war-risk premiums fall as Polymarket puts July 15 normal traffic at 30%
On June 25, 2026, a report said insurers cut war-risk premiums for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, signaling easing perceived threats along the corridor.
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on Polymarket
U.S. and Iranian officials publicly disputed whether Tehran agreed to U.N. inspections of bombed nuclear sites as talks continued, with Trump threatening to walk away without inspections.
Bessent says Treasury to oversee Iran funds as Polymarket sees 99% for 20+ ships
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury will oversee Iranian funds released under Trump’s interim Iran agreement, aiming to steer money toward U.S. farm goods and medicines.
England-Ghana draw lifts Hormuz normalization odds to 42.5% on Polymarket
England and Ghana played to a 0-0 World Cup draw, with late chances but no breakthrough.