Iran
Polymarket holds Iran regime-fall Yes at 10.5% despite strike escalation
For a sixth straight night, a report says the U.S. widened airstrikes on Iran, hitting bridges, energy sites, and a key-port tower as Hormuz fighting intensified.
Polymarket keeps Aug. 31 US–Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights
Fresh live updates report the US and Iran traded attacks for a seventh straight night, underscoring an unresolved conflict. Polymarket traders care because the ceasefire ladder still puts the Aug.
Polymarket: US-Iran invasion odds jump to 27.5% on $44M volume
A report cited explosions in Yazd and other parts of Iran during what it called a latest wave of U.S. strikes, renewing escalation concerns.
Polymarket Hormuz normal-traffic odds sink to 52.5% on escalation risks
An Iranian official reportedly threatened a “full-scale offensive” if US strikes continue, raising fears of wider escalation that could disrupt shipping.
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 22.5% on Gulf strike escalation
Overnight reports said Iran fired missiles and drones across parts of the Gulf as the U.S.
Polymarket prices US-Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 at 53.5% as Knesset dissolves
Israel’s parliament dissolved, triggering an October 27 election framed as a referendum on Netanyahu and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
Polymarket odds dip on US–Iran ceasefire by Aug 31 after continued strikes
Reporting says the US launched another wave of strikes on Iran, the sixth consecutive night, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation.
Polymarket: No seen 99% on Hormuz normalization by July 31 amid IRGC warning
A July 16 video report says Iran’s IRGC warned it could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait after Hormuz, potentially with Houthi help to disrupt shipping.
Polymarket yes odds jump to 22.5% on U.S.–Iran invasion bet after report
A report says Israel is preparing for the possibility of a U.S.–Iran escalation next week, prompting fresh contingency chatter.
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claim
Iran’s Guards said they struck a U.S. base in Jordan, a claim framed as a discrete escalation involving American forces outside Iran.