Macro & Fed Prediction Markets
Housing starts slump, Polymarket still pegs July Fed hold at 91.5%
In May, U.S. single-family homebuilding sank to an eight-month low as higher mortgage rates and material costs squeezed demand.
BOJ hikes to 1% as Polymarket sees 70% odds the Fed makes zero 2026 cuts
On Friday, Japan’s central bank raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 1% in a split 7-1 decision, the highest in over three decades.
Brent dips under $83 on Hormuz deal talk; Polymarket July hold at 93.5%
On June 15, Brent crude slipped below $83 as traders reacted to a tentative U.S.-Iran framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire.
US-Iran truce lifts risk mood as Polymarket pegs 69% odds of zero Fed cuts
On Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced an interim peace deal, lifting risk appetite as bitcoin neared $66,000 Monday and crypto-linked stocks rose pre-market.
Fed Likely Holds Rate as Market Bets Persist on July Decision
Dollar slides after Trump says Iran deal reached, euro up after ECB rate hike; traders on Polymarket pushed the ladder higher, with no rate change still seen as near-term likely.
Fed-cut odds stay unlikely as Warsh week boosts crypto rally
Bitcoin jumped to a two-week high near $67,000 as Iran's ceasefire eased macro fears ahead of a pivotal FOMC week.
Fed rate-cut Odds Edge Higher on Polymarket Amid Policy Uncertainty
Global equities rose after a US-Iran deal spurred risk-on sentiment, lifting major indices, as Fed policy expectations shifted toward a slower 2026 cut path.
Fed Decision in June: Odds Narrow Around No Change
Iran-US talks outlined a framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the BoJ signals two rate hikes this year.
No Fed Cuts Seen in 2026 Amid Market Betting on Slow Easing
On 2026-? ECB raises rates to curb inflation, signaling tighter policy amid lingering price pressures.
Fed Holds Rates in June as Market Bets Narrow to No Change
On June 2026, markets expect a hold as Warsh leads the first rate meeting, keeping policy signals cautious amid inflation and data.