Macro & Fed Prediction Markets
Euro slips on cooler inflation as Polymarket boosts Fed hold odds to 79.5%
After fresh euro zone inflation data signaled cooling prices, the euro extended its reversal and slipped below 1.1400.
Crypto rebound lifts risk focus as Polymarket sees 78% odds of 0 Fed cuts
Stellar and Pyth Network extended a rebound even as the broader crypto market stayed stressed, offering a rare bright spot in a risk-off tape.
Warsh speaks after hawkish debut as Polymarket no-cuts bet slips to 78%
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will appear at an ECB forum panel in Portugal, his first public remarks since his policy-meeting debut.
Global crypto rules near July shift Polymarket to 79.5% Fed hold in 2026
Late June and early July bring new crypto rule deadlines in the EU, UK, Australia and California, with Europe’s MiCA transition ending July 1 and firms facing authorization pressure.
MUFG warns yen intervention risk as Polymarket sees 80.5% Fed hold in July
A MUFG analysis warned that rising Fed hawkishness is renewing pressure on the yen and raising the odds of Japanese intervention, especially if moves turn rapid.
Euro dips below 1.1400 as dollar firms, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cuts at 78%
EUR/USD slipped under 1.1400 as the dollar strengthened on renewed focus on the Federal Reserve outlook and Iran-linked risk.
Supreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On a macro update segment, Jefferies strategist David Zervos said inflation should move lower in the second half of 2026, as the Supreme Court ruled President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa
Analysts turn bullish on Applied A&D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cuts
After its post-IPO blackout ended this month, Applied Aerospace & Defense drew new buy/outperform calls, with shares last Friday at $20.53 after a $20 IPO.
USD stays firm, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cut Fed odds at 77.75%
A 2026-06-29 EUR/USD analysis said the U.S. dollar still holds a relative edge over the euro, keeping near-term risks tilted toward USD strength.
Risk-on mood lifts July Fed hold odds to 81.5% on Polymarket
Broader markets stayed risk-on as traders tracked U.S.-Iran developments for any escalation that could jolt volatility and growth expectations.