Ukraine & Russia Prediction Markets
Polymarket odds: United Russia slips to 53.5% as Ukraine strikes reported
Ukraine’s General Staff said it struck Russia’s Syzran oil refinery in Samara and hit Sea of Azov maritime targets, with fires reported and damage under assessment.
Kyiv hit before NATO Ankara summit as Polymarket puts Putin exit by 2027 at 18%
A Russian missile strike destroyed a residential building in Kyiv as crews cleared debris after an overnight barrage that killed at least 22 people, with Ukraine saying 68 missiles and 351 drones
Omsk refinery hit trims Polymarket odds for United Russia lead to 54.5%
On Monday, industry sources said Ukraine’s drone strike halted Gazprom Neft’s Omsk refinery after damaging key crude distillation units, with repairs underway and no injuries reported.
Drone strikes hit Chernihiv as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 19%
On July 6, Russian drones hit two enterprises in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, igniting fires in Koriukivka district that responders later put out with no reported casualties.
Deadly Kyiv strikes lift Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 9.5%
Early Monday, Russia launched waves of missiles and drones at Ukraine, killing at least 18 people as Kyiv took the brunt and officials reported 60 wounded.
Hungary ouster plan nudges Polymarket Putin-exit odds to 9.5%
A report says Hungary’s government is planning a constitutional change that would make it easier to initiate the president’s removal.
Kyiv leadership buzz lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by end-2026 to 11.5%
A Ukrainska Pravda investigation said ex-commander Valerii Zaluzhny told President Volodymyr Zelensky he would run if an autumn election were held, though details were unverified and wartime voting
Russia steps up strikes as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2026 odds to 11.5%
Russian overnight attacks on Ukraine killed at least four people and injured 10, officials said Friday, after a deadly day in Kyiv.
World Cup buzz aside, Polymarket lifts United Russia seat-lead odds to 56.5%
World Cup travelers in Boston, Dallas, New York, Atlanta and Toronto are turning match trips into food tours, lining up for lobster rolls, poutine and iconic fast-food stops.
Kherson drone strike lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by 2026 to 14.5%
By 11:00, officials in Kherson said a Russian drone strike on a passenger minibus left two dead and nine wounded, including two healthcare workers.