US China & Geopolitics Prediction Markets
US clamps down on Anthropic AI access as Polymarket Taiwan clash odds rise to 8%
On Friday, the Trump administration ordered Anthropic to revoke foreign nationals’ access to its Mythos and Fable 5 models after concerns tied to SK Telecom and reported guardrail bypasses.
China vows countermeasures over Taiwan tip site as Polymarket invasion odds slip
On Sunday, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau launched a website for Chinese nationals to submit intelligence tips, prompting Beijing to vow unspecified countermeasures and warn of legal liability.
Oil slides on US-Iran peace hopes as Polymarket holds China-Taiwan odds at 15.5%
Brent crude sank 5.16% to $82.82 on Monday as Iran and the U.S. signaled they may end their four-month war, though strategists warned lingering disruption risks.
UK Crypto Push, Mexico Odds Rise on Polymarket Frontline Risk
On June 11, 2026, Coinbase-backed Stand With Crypto UK mobilized 286,000 members to file formal complaints over blanket crypto transfer restrictions, intensifying regulatory pressure.
No-Taiwan Invasion Odds Hold Near 99% on Polymarket
At the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on defense spending and deterrence, delegates signaled higher budgets and closer security ties as Asia weighs rising risks.
Market pulse: No side dominates as 2026 Taiwan invasion odds stay low
The Philippines’ defence chief warned at the Shangri-La Dialogue that Beijing blocks a binding South China Sea code, stalling talks amid ASEAN unity.