Search Results for "Iran & Gulf Prediction Markets"
Iran warns of swift response as Polymarket puts 59% odds on June 27 strike
A senior Iranian official said Iran would respond swiftly and decisively to alleged U.S. agreement violations, amplifying uncertainty over near-term escalation.
Iran rejects US Hormuz hotline as Polymarket sees just 3.55% for normal traffic
Iran’s IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said a proposed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz hotline “has not happened and will not happen,” as reports described renewed fire and a ship hit late Thursday.
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5%
After a drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command released video it said showed strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites.
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would use “force” against Iran if Tehran blocks implementation of a Lebanon deal, highlighting risks of escalation.
CENTCOM confirms new US strikes as Polymarket puts Iran shipping hit at 99%
On June 27, U.S. Central Command confirmed new U.S. strikes, saying Iran had a chance to honor a ceasefire but chose not to.
US strikes Iran again after Hormuz tanker hit; Polymarket sees 99.95% by Aug 31
On the second day of renewed action, the U.S. struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, and drone sites after the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku was hit in the Strait of Hormuz around 4:30 a.m. ET.
US strikes, Trump vow sink Polymarket Jul15 Hormuz normalization odds to 13.5%
Fresh U.S. military strikes coincided with former President Donald Trump warning he would “complete the job” in Iran, heightening escalation concerns around Gulf shipping lanes.
South Lebanon strike report drops Iran regime-fall odds to 0.05% on Polymarket
A report said an Israeli strike was carried out in south Lebanon in recent days, though officials haven’t confirmed details.
Iran warns on Hormuz as Polymarket July 15 normalization odds drop to 12.5%
Iran’s foreign minister said any challenge to the Strait of Hormuz would “increase tensions,” highlighting risks to the key shipping lane.
US-Iran MoU keeps deal clock ticking as Polymarket prices 44.5% by Dec 31
A June 28 opinion analysis said the US-Iran MoU is best seen as a pause, not a peace framework, warning Tehran may abandon commitments when convenient.
Iran cancels technical talks as Polymarket puts 2026 deal odds at 45.5%
After recent attacks, Iran canceled planned technical talks, state TV reported, offering no new timetable and adding uncertainty to the nuclear track.
Hormuz halt report points to Qatar talks as Polymarket holds Doha at 48%
A report says the US and Iran agreed to halt Hormuz-linked attacks and plan Qatar talks on Tuesday to ease tensions around the strait.