Search Results for "Macro & Fed Prediction Markets"
Japan inflation cools as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 72.5%
In May, Japan’s core CPI rose 1.4% year over year and stayed below the BOJ’s 2% target for a fourth month, even after this week’s rate hike to a 31-year high.
BOJ deputy warns on inflation as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike odds at 66%
After the Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1% and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned inflation could exceed 2%, investors read the remarks as support for more tightening this year.
Warsh holds rates steady as Polymarket lifts July no-change odds to 74.5%
On June 17, the Fed held rates steady for a fourth straight meeting at 3.5% to 3.75% as new chair Kevin Warsh announced policy task forces and pared back guidance.
Micron earnings in focus as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 81%
Markets are watching Micron’s quarterly results on Wednesday, June 24, for fresh clues on whether AI and data-center chip demand is still accelerating.
Trump approval holds at 37% as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold to 77.5%
A June 11-17 AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults put President Donald Trump’s approval at 37%, unchanged as a tentative U.S.-Iran deal emerged and 53% said U.S. actions went too far.
AI data center debt sharpens rate focus as Polymarket sees July hold at 78.5%
On Wednesday, Fed chair Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as tech giants ramped debt-funded AI data center spending, with the 10-year yield near 4.45%.
Warsh hints at quieter Fed as Polymarket keeps SpaceX 86.5% for top 2026 IPO
In his first press conference this week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joked about launching five task forces and declined to offer forward guidance, hinting at a return to less Fed communication.
Warsh drops forward guidance as Polymarket pegs 2026 zero cuts at 79.85%
At his first press conference as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh cut back on forward guidance and said the latest statement offered no hints on the next move, sparking volatile trading.
Warsh flags easy financing as Polymarket lifts July Fed hold odds to 78.5%
After the June 17, 2026 Fed meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to a Wall Street “gusher of capital” as equity and debt fundraising surged, tempering expectations for near-term cuts.
Strong jobs data dims cuts as Polymarket sees 81% odds of zero in 2026
For the week ending June 13, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 and unemployment stayed at 4.3%, as the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17 and lifted its end-2026 median to 3.8%.
ADMA suit shakes risk mood as Polymarket still prices 80% odds of zero 2026 cuts
A federal securities complaint filed in New Jersey alleges ADMA Biologics boosted revenue via channel stuffing and hid a related-party distribution tie after a March 24, 2026 short-seller report.
Warsh launches Fed policy review as Polymarket lifts July hold odds to 73.5%
After his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh formed five task forces to rethink communications, data, inflation views, AI’s impact, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.