Search Results for "Macro & Fed Prediction Markets"
Supreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%
On a macro update segment, Jefferies strategist David Zervos said inflation should move lower in the second half of 2026, as the Supreme Court ruled President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa
Euro dips below 1.1400 as dollar firms, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cuts at 78%
EUR/USD slipped under 1.1400 as the dollar strengthened on renewed focus on the Federal Reserve outlook and Iran-linked risk.
MUFG warns yen intervention risk as Polymarket sees 80.5% Fed hold in July
A MUFG analysis warned that rising Fed hawkishness is renewing pressure on the yen and raising the odds of Japanese intervention, especially if moves turn rapid.
Global crypto rules near July shift Polymarket to 79.5% Fed hold in 2026
Late June and early July bring new crypto rule deadlines in the EU, UK, Australia and California, with Europe’s MiCA transition ending July 1 and firms facing authorization pressure.
Warsh speaks after hawkish debut as Polymarket no-cuts bet slips to 78%
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will appear at an ECB forum panel in Portugal, his first public remarks since his policy-meeting debut.
Crypto rebound lifts risk focus as Polymarket sees 78% odds of 0 Fed cuts
Stellar and Pyth Network extended a rebound even as the broader crypto market stayed stressed, offering a rare bright spot in a risk-off tape.
Euro slips on cooler inflation as Polymarket boosts Fed hold odds to 79.5%
After fresh euro zone inflation data signaled cooling prices, the euro extended its reversal and slipped below 1.1400.
Kocher flags easing inflation as Polymarket cuts 2026 Fed hike odds to 54.5%
At 08:42 on July 1, 2026, Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said European inflation is stabilizing as Middle East tensions ease, but uncertainty remains high.
Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%
Mexico’s central bank survey showed private economists now expect lower inflation, reinforcing a softer price outlook that can ripple into global rate assumptions.
Strategist backs quieter Fed as Polymarket hold odds jump to 79.5%
In a recent segment, strategist Kenny Polcari said a less vocal Federal Reserve would foster more disciplined markets and expects Kevin Warsh to keep rates steady.
Cooler June jobs report lifts Polymarket Fed hold odds to 90.5%
On Thursday, U.S. stocks split after June payrolls rose just 57,000 and jobless rate hit 4.2%, cooling expectations for the Fed’s next move.
AUD/JPY steadies near 112 as Polymarket tilts 53.5% to no Fed hike in 2026
A July 3 technical note said AUD/JPY hovered around 112.00 but stayed below key moving averages, keeping a bearish tilt despite the pause.