Search Results for "Macro & Fed Prediction Markets"
RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5%
On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over.
Higher mortgage outlook dips Kane to 26.5% in Polymarket Ballon d'Or 2026
For the week ending July 2, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, and a report warned it could stay between 6.50% and 6.70% until 2027.
Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September
A market note this week highlighted conflict-driven oil volatility and positioning as a key driver of near-term swings, warning it could ripple into broader risk sentiment and rates expectations.
Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%
Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise
Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.49% this week, alongside firmer Treasury yields.
Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger
After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%.
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forces
Kevin Warsh named experts to five Federal Reserve task forces to review policy and operations, with findings to be reported back to FOMC officials and potential changes expected this year.
Polymarket odds hold: 56.5% on Sept Fed no-change after AI task force
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh named leaders of five outside-led task forces at the central bank, including an AI group led by Marc Andreessen, economist Charles I. Jones, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma.
Polymarket odds lift July Fed hold to 78% as hike risk stays on ladder
U.S. stocks inched higher as AI-linked winners extended weekly gains, with Treasury yields also ticking up ahead of major bank earnings.
Polymarket odds lift Mbappé to 34% in 2026 Ballon d’Or market
A new RBC Wealth Management note warned the Federal Reserve could reverse 2025 “insurance cuts” or even avoid raising rates, underscoring how quickly policy expectations can shift.