May 15: The Year of Bitcoin Options?
Happy Friday! BTC up 3% in the past 24 hours, flirting $9,900, teasing the market at the $10K psychological level. In the last few days, I noticed BTC weakness from the start of Asia session followed by buying activity when the U.S. woke up, driven primarily by spot buying (futures curve still relatively flat).
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Happy Friday! BTC up 3% in the past 24 hours, flirting $9,900, teasing the market at the $10K psychological level. In the last few days, I noticed BTC's weakness from the start of Asia session followed by buying activity when the U.S. woke up, driven primarily by spot buying (futures curve still relatively flat). This is why I suspect that U.S. capital is driving the current bid; both retail and institutions. You would notice that CME listed BTC futures have been trading at a 50-75 bps premium recently.
Another sign of U.S. or regulated capital coming into this space is that the total BTC options open interest made a new record of almost $1.3bn yesterday, the result of substantial increase of activity in CME. Yesterday marked the third consecutive record volume day for CME options; concentrated mostly on calls; $10k, $10.5k and $11k across both May and June tenors.
The last reason why I think fresh capital is being invested is that we are starting to see the breakdown in correlation between BTC and S&P. While this correlation tends to flip flop, the current weakness in correlation is also testimony that there is fresh money coming into the space defying the gravity of S&P weakness.
The third consecutive record volume day for CME options... Institutions are coming...
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