According to @caprioleio, after April 2, Bitcoin fell roughly 10% over the following week, then formed a local bottom near 74,000 dollars before rallying about 50% to around 111,000 dollars, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 10, 2025. He suggests this sequence could serve as a guide if new US tariffs on China are announced, highlighting policy headlines as a near-term volatility catalyst for BTC, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 10, 2025. The referenced pivot levels in his example are 74,000 dollars as the swing low and 111,000 dollars as the subsequent local high, which he uses to frame potential drawdown-and-recovery dynamics, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 10, 2025. This note is intended for scenario planning rather than prediction, focusing on how trade policy shocks can affect short-term Bitcoin price action, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 10, 2025.