According to the source, Polymarket pricing implies a 61% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $130,000 before the end of this month, based on Yes shares trading near $0.61 in the relevant market as of Oct 7, 2025 (source: Polymarket market data, Oct 7, 2025). For traders, this sets a 61%/39% risk framework for upside versus failure-to-touch scenarios this month, which can inform position sizing and conditional orders around the $130,000 trigger level (source: Polymarket market data, Oct 7, 2025).