According to @ki_young_ju, BTC faces a more bearish setup, and a strong recovery is unlikely for the next 3–6 months until macro liquidity returns in 2025. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He emphasizes that macro dollar liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle, noting tightening liquidity and ongoing selling in risk assets likely persisting until liquidity eases next year. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He adds that both market and on-chain metrics show weak liquidity now and that the classic on-chain bull cycle has ended. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He notes a sharp bounce toward around 100K is possible, but if that level does not break, the probability of another lower low increases. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He cites Luke Gromen’s view that a large US fiscal deficit and weakening foreign demand for Treasuries could leave the Treasury market unstable without fresh liquidity, implying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher when liquidity returns next year; he aligns with this view. Source: @ki_young_ju citing @LukeGromen on X, Nov 21, 2025. Trading implications: prioritize dollar-liquidity signals over on-chain cycle, monitor Treasury market stress, treat 100K as pivotal resistance, and expect range or downside until a clear liquidity inflection in 2025. Source: synthesis of @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US government is set to distribute more than 400 billion dollars in stimulus payments for the first time since 2021, alongside Fed rate cuts, inflation back above 3 percent, and a weakening labor market, which the author frames as bullish for risk assets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 9, 2025. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Magnificent 7 companies are investing over 100 billion dollars per quarter in AI-related capital expenditures and stocks are at record highs, which the author says will add fuel to the bull market; risk assets commonly include cryptocurrencies and are sensitive to liquidity conditions. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 9, 2025; Source: Investopedia.