According to @StockMarketNerd, a 50 bps rate cut would signal Federal Reserve panic and heighten market anxiety, making a smaller 25 bps cut the preferable outcome for stability, as stated on X on Nov 10, 2025 (source: @StockMarketNerd on X, Nov 10, 2025). For trading, this view points to risk-off reactions if a 50 bps cut arrives as a surprise and relatively steadier pricing around a 25 bps move, with potential spillover to BTC and ETH given their increased correlation with equities documented by the IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2022 (sources: @StockMarketNerd on X, Nov 10, 2025; IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2022).

According to @CryptoMichNL, markets are positioned for a weaker US Dollar, lower interest rates, and a potential top in gold into this week’s decision, highlighting a buy the rumor, sell the news gold rally setup. Source: Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, Sep 15, 2025. He notes he will watch gold’s post-announcement reaction on Wednesday to validate whether the rally fades after the event. Source: Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, Sep 15, 2025. He adds that a 25 bps Fed rate cut would be a positive signal, while a 50 bps cut would be even better in his view. Source: Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on X, Sep 15, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, current market odds show a 93.4% probability of a 25 bps rate cut and a 6.6% probability of a 50 bps cut, source: @rovercrc. @rovercrc states that markets will explode, signaling traders to prepare for heightened volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, source: @rovercrc. For short-term positioning, this skew in expectations supports volatility-focused setups around the decision window, source: @rovercrc.