According to the source, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, stated Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving, implying a BTC price near $644,000; source: Matthew Sigel of VanEck via X on Oct 7, 2025. Half of gold’s market value is widely estimated in the $7–8 trillion range, framing the implied BTC market cap if this target materializes; source: World Gold Council public estimates of above‑ground gold value. The thesis relies on the halving mechanism that cuts Bitcoin’s block subsidy by 50%, reducing new issuance and serving as a key input in post‑halving supply models used by analysts; source: Bitcoin protocol documentation on block subsidy and halving schedule.