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Time Details
2025-11-08
10:56
Asymmetric Returns: 5 Data-Backed Rules to Capture Big Winners in Stocks and Crypto including BTC and ETH

According to @QCompounding, lifetime equity returns are driven by a few outsized winners because losses are capped at minus 100 percent while upside can compound by thousands of percent, source: @QCompounding on X Nov 8, 2025. Empirical evidence shows that roughly 4 percent of U.S. stocks created all net wealth from 1926 to 2016, reinforcing the need to systematically hold potential multi-baggers, source: Hendrik Bessembinder 2018 Arizona State University. For trade selection, momentum and profitability factors have delivered persistent excess returns across markets which raises the probability of staying with emerging winners, source: Asness Moskowitz and Pedersen 2013 and Fama and French 2015. In crypto, value creation is similarly concentrated with BTC and ETH capturing the majority of long-term market cap and liquidity while most altcoins underperform or fade, source: Coin Metrics State of the Network 2021 to 2023 and Kaiko Research 2023. A practical approach is small initial position sizing with pyramiding and volatility targeting to harness convex trends while capping per-trade risk, source: AQR Capital Management research on volatility targeting 2014 to 2018 and CME Group crypto volatility primers.

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