According to André Dragosch, the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model projects BTC at 111,000 USD currently, 222,000 USD by 2026, and 10.9 million USD in 10 years, implying a 58.3% CAGR; source: André Dragosch, X post, Oct 26, 2025. He explains that S2F measures scarcity as stock divided by annual flow and was popularized by PlanB, with Bitcoin’s halving events doubling S2F each cycle; source: André Dragosch, X post, Oct 26, 2025. Dragosch cites criticisms that BTC has underperformed S2F-implied prices, residuals exhibit negative drift and non-stationarity, and the model may be misspecified because S2F is time-driven by halvings, referencing Kripfganz (2020); source: Kripfganz 2020 via André Dragosch, X post, Oct 26, 2025. For trading context, he adds that institutional demand via Bitcoin ETPs and corporate treasuries currently exceeds the annualized post-halving supply reduction by over 7x, indicating flows can dominate issuance cuts as a price driver; source: André Dragosch, X post, Oct 26, 2025. He recommends using S2F only as a rough long-term guide and applying caution given its statistical limitations and omission of demand-side drivers; source: André Dragosch, X post, Oct 26, 2025.