According to @CoinMarketCap, Citi analysts set Bitcoin's 12-month base case at $143,000, with a bullish scenario of $189,000 and a bearish scenario of $78,500, driven by anticipated ETF interest and regulatory clarity (source: @CoinMarketCap). Based on figures and drivers cited by @CoinMarketCap, the targets imply a $110,500 scenario spread and roughly a 2.4x bull-to-bear multiple, which traders can use for risk limits, options strike selection, and catalyst tracking focused on ETF flows and regulatory milestones (source: @CoinMarketCap).

According to @EricBalchunas on X (Dec 1, 2025), Citi analysts estimate that each $1 billion of Bitcoin ETF outflows corresponds to roughly a 3.4% decline in BTC’s price (source: @EricBalchunas citing Citi analysts). Applying that elasticity symmetrically, @EricBalchunas notes that about $22.5 billion of year-to-date net inflows would imply roughly a 76.5% BTC price increase if the relationship holds (source: @EricBalchunas on X). For traders, this suggests BTC is materially sensitive to spot Bitcoin ETF flow shocks, making daily net flow prints a high-frequency signal for directional risk and hedging decisions (source: @EricBalchunas summarizing Citi’s estimate).