According to @charliebilello, this year’s US trade data were distorted by massive Q1 front‑running of tariffs as corporations built inventories that boosted imports and widened the trade deficit in Q1, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, firms are now working off those inventories, leading to lower imports and smaller trade deficits in subsequent months, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, the real US trade picture will not be clear until some point in 2026, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. According to @charliebilello, consumer price increases are still likely ahead, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 11, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, if the average tariff rate remains at 29%, inflation is anticipated to rise to approximately 5.0%-5.5%. UBS corroborates this estimate, highlighting that price increases will likely be partially transferred to consumers. Notably, Canada is identified as the only other country expected to experience a similar inflation increase of over 2%.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, China's consumer prices fell by -0.7% year-over-year in February, indicating a deflationary trend. This marks the second monthly decline in Core CPI inflation by -0.1% in over 15 years. The GDP deflator also dropped by -0.8% in Q4 2024, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of decline. These trends are critical for traders as they may influence global market dynamics and commodity prices, presenting both risks and opportunities for strategic positioning.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, inflation indicators are on the rise as the Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid index increased by 8.6 points in February, reaching its highest level since October 2022. Concurrently, the NY Empire State Prices Paid index rose by 11.1 points to 40.2, marking the highest since March 2023. These regional inflation measures indicate potential upward pressure on consumer prices, which traders should monitor for impacts on interest rate expectations and currency valuations.