According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket now prices a 53% probability that the Fed makes no rate cut at its December 2025 meeting, placing no change above the odds of a 25 bps cut for the first time; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X citing Polymarket. The post states that markets are worried about inflation, highlighting why no-change odds have overtaken cut odds; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X. For trading, crypto market participants can reference the Polymarket contract as a real-time gauge of rate-cut expectations when managing BTC and ETH exposure around Fed communications and macro data; source: Polymarket data referenced by The Kobeissi Letter.