According to @StockMKTNewz, JPMorgan now expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in December, as reported by Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg via @StockMKTNewz on Nov 26, 2025. Kalshi shows an 84% probability of a December rate cut, indicating strong market pricing ahead of the FOMC decision. Source: Kalshi odds quoted by @StockMKTNewz. Crypto traders are watching rate cut odds because shifts in US policy expectations often drive risk sentiment; monitoring Kalshi probabilities and front end Treasury yields can help gauge positioning into the meeting. Source: Kalshi market odds via @StockMKTNewz and Bloomberg rates coverage cited in the same post.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s prediction market is pricing roughly a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month, with the December FOMC statement scheduled for Wednesday, December 10 at 2 PM ET; Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Kalshi. A 25 bp cut would lower the target range by 0.25 percentage points, which historically aligns with easier financial conditions through lower front-end yields; Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System policy implementation framework. For trading, watch DXY, 2-year Treasury yields, and BTC and ETH volatility around the 2 PM ET release as deviations from market-implied odds can trigger sharp moves in risk assets; Source: Federal Reserve release timing and Kalshi-implied probabilities reported by @StockMKTNewz.

According to @charliebilello, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December to counter persistent inflation pressure. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025) He asserts that inflation has run at more than twice the Fed’s 2% target for over five years and notes U.S. stocks and home prices are at record highs. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025) He warns that policies perceived as loose risk creating additional inflation and worsening affordability, a backdrop traders may interpret as a hawkish signal for rate expectations into the December meeting. source: @charliebilello on X (Nov 23, 2025)

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket now prices a 68% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at the December meeting, with the odds explicitly sourced to Polymarket. According to @KobeissiLetter, this repricing followed the author’s report that the US Labor Department canceled the October jobs report, while the 68% figure comes from Polymarket. According to the IMF Global Financial Stability Report, tighter financial conditions and higher real yields have been associated with weaker performance in risk assets including crypto, suggesting potential short-term pressure on BTC and ETH if the no-cut odds stay elevated. According to IMF research, crypto’s correlation with broader financial conditions has increased since 2020, making Polymarket’s Fed path probabilities a relevant high-frequency gauge for BTC and ETH traders.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed’s Waller said a December rate cut would provide extra labor-market insurance. According to the Federal Reserve, lowering the policy rate is used to support maximum employment by easing financial conditions, which can influence Treasury yields, the US dollar, and risk asset pricing including crypto.

According to @cryptorover, the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut are dropping, highlighting a macro shift traders monitor for potential volatility in crypto markets including BTC and ETH, source: Crypto Rover on X. Traders commonly reference the CME FedWatch Tool to quantify policy path probabilities and align positioning in crypto with changing rate expectations, source: CME FedWatch Tool.

According to @business, US Treasuries ended the week essentially flat as bulls and bears fought to a draw, with conflicting private-sector labor data leaving expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut in limbo (source: Bloomberg). The absence of a clear policy signal kept the rates outlook uncertain, offering no fresh directional cue for rate-sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH (source: Bloomberg).