According to @adriannewman21, bears need a clear rationale for why crypto would decouple from the broader stock market and he questions the current fundamental strength of the S&P 500, which puts the focus on how BTC and ETH beta to equities may shift, source @adriannewman21 on X. Kaiko documented that BTC to U.S. equities correlations surged to cycle highs in 2022 and then eased through 2023, implying that any new decoupling thesis requires fresh catalysts beyond the prior cycle, source Kaiko market research 2022 to 2023. Traders can validate or fade a decoupling view by tracking 30 to 90 day rolling correlations between BTC or ETH and the S&P 500 and by watching FOMC policy signals that often drive cross asset beta, sources CME Group education on correlation and Federal Reserve FOMC statements. To assess whether equities may be the weak link rather than crypto, monitor S&P 500 earnings revisions breadth and forward EPS trends that shape risk appetite, source FactSet Earnings Insight.